Cayce, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS62 KCAE 071654
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1254 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today bringing cooler and
drier air to the north and west and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the south and east. Mainly dry conditions are
expected during the upcoming work week, with below normal
temperatures to start, gradually warming as the week goes on.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Cold front is slowly pushing through but sufficient moisture
remains for showers-storms in the eastern Midlands and coastal
plain.
Deep upper level troughing continues to dig across the TN Valley and
into the Appalachians today. The associated surface front and
moisture is steadily pushing through the area this afternoon, but as
we typically see, a secondary backdoor front overnight tonight will
truly drive through notably drier air. Thanks to this initially
mediocre dry advection behind the front, deep moisture still
lingers across the eastern Midlands and coastal plain with
PWAT`s over 2.0" and surface dew points in the mid-70`s. This
will allow sufficient destabilization this afternoon with ML
CAPE jumping over 2000 J/kg and good agreement in the convection
depiction across the HREF. Convection should remain confined
south of I-20, and really be focused from I-95 eastward. Severe
potential looks limited with only moderate instability and
little cloud layer shear; flash flooding looks a bit more
probable, albeit still fairly low, given the high PWAT`s and
likelihood for some messy convective mode and training storms.
The secondary front will arrive from the northeast overnight
into early Monday morning, with the HRRR showing some scattered
showers developing along the enhanced moisture convergence and
some elevated instability. Regardless these will have little
impact with notably drier air pushing in by sunrise Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cooler and dry conditions expected early this week with high
  pressure building into the region.
- Breezy conditions expected on Monday
Anomalous surface high pressure will continue to build into the
region early this week with persistent northeasterly flow. This
will continue to filter drier and cooler air into the forecast
area on Monday. The frontal boundary will remain stalled along
the coast and deeper moisture should stay to our east with PWATs
ranging from less than inch in the western Midlands to 1.2-1.3
inches in the eastern Midlands. An inverted trough is expected
to develop on Tuesday in response to an approaching upper trough
which should tighten the moisture gradient across the Coastal
Plain and while we are keeping a dry forecast at this time, it
is possible if that gradient shifts inland a bit more for some
showers to possibly impact the eastern Midlands Tuesday and
Tuesday night.
NAEFS has low level temperatures in the 10th percentile which
should support below normal temperatures during this period with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows ranging from the
upper 50s to lower to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry weather expected
- A warming trend is expected mid to late week
A generally dry and warming forecast is expected through the
extended period. Ensemble guidance shows the upper pattern
remaining fairly unchanged with a mean trough across the eastern
part of the country with a reinforcing shortwave trough moving
from the Ohio Valley to the east coast on Thursday. This will
push another reinforcing dry frontal boundary through the
region to the coast with another surface high pressure
reinforcing the dry air mass. Ensemble PWATs remain below normal
through the period and this should support the continued dry
forecast. Temperatures are expected to be warming back to near
normal through the end of the week with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s. There are hints of lowering upper heights next
weekend which could signal a slight cooldown again.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions this afternoon with some scattered showers, mainly
east of TAF sites.
A cold front is moving into the area, currently pushing down into
northern SC. VFR conditions are in place ahead of this front with
fairly light winds. Between 4-6pm the front will sink south and
increase wind speeds from the north; sustained 8-12 knots with gusts
around 20 knots. Moisture is generally limited at most TAF sites,
and afternoon convection ahead of the front should remain east of
the TAF sites, only excepting OGB where a prob30 continues. Gusts
should weaken overnight with surface winds still remaining between 8-
10 knots. Some stratus is expected to develop but again should
remain mostly east of the TAF sites. Included some mentions in the
TAF of the low confidence stratus as a result. Clear skies and VFR
with gusty northeast winds expected Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cooler and drier air mass will
settle over the region early this week behind the front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion