Cebolla, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS65 KABQ 051934
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
134 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will return Monday through Wednesday
  this week. Areas near and east of the central mountain chain
  will be favored Monday before showers and storms spread to more
  of northern and central New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A vigorous shortwave is currently dropping into ID early this
afternoon with another weaker perturbation sliding just offshore
of the CA coast. The latter is outlining a longer wave trough
feature over the western ConUS. Southwesterly flow aloft
continues over NM with 700 mb speeds of 20-30 kt keeping some
breeziness going, especially over eastern zones this afternoon.
Some high-based fair weather cumulus will dot the eastern skies,
but clear skies will be seen elsewhere.
Breezes will subside around sunset with another cool night in
store with effective radiational cooling and some light mountain
drainage breezes setting up for many western and central zones.
The other feature of note will be a backdoor front that will slide
into northeastern zones, bringing a northeasterly wind shift and
some low stratus clouds. A few showers cannot be ruled out along
and near the leading edge of the frontal boundary, especially
where moisture/surface convergence will be maximized through dawn
Monday, but a few warm air advection sector showers farther south
are not totally out of the question either.
The prospects for showers and thunderstorms grow more for eastern
zones into Monday afternoon. The front will have more or less
stalled with moist return flow keeping moisture advection going.
PWATs will rise to 1.0 inch or better in the southeastern third or
so of the state Monday with areas east of the central mountain
chain likely being fair game for showers/storms as diurnal heating
ensues. East central areas will initiate storms easiest, assuming
the surface convergence and instability are highest there as
models depict. A strong to severe storm or two are not out of the
realm of possibilities either for Monday afternoon, as sufficient
deep layer shear will exist. Global models and higher resolution
CAMs indicate showers and storms continuing over eastern zones
through the overnight into Tuesday morning. A gusty gap/canyon
wind will also develop in vulnerable locations like eastern ABQ
late Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Into Tuesday, Monday night`s convection and a deepening moist
southerly flow will help draw moisture farther west, causing storm
coverage to expand toward the Continental Divide and just beyond.
The Rio Grande valley, central mountain chain, and portions of the
eastern plains will also remain active with PWATs reaching a 0.75
to 1.0 inch range for much of these areas. Drier values in west
central, northwestern, and north central zones will inhibit storm
development Tuesday, but moisture should gradually expand more
northwestward into Wednesday. This will put Wednesday`s focus for
storms between the Continental Divide and the central mountain
chain. By Wednesday, the southwesterlies aloft would be weakening
some over NM as the former offshore CA disturbance gets sheared
apart inland over the intermountain west and the upper high
builds into TX and southeastern NM. Storms would still be drifting
eastbound at 10-20 mph on Wednesday with coverage forecast to
trend down Wednesday night.
By Thursday, forecast model consensus is leaning toward a scenario
that puts the upper high farther into NM. Some moisture will be
left for recycling, but with shorter temporal windows for diurnal
heating and subsidence brought on with the ridge, much less storm
activity is forecast Thursday afternoon. A strong upper low will
be approaching the Pacific Northwest states Thursday, dropping
toward the OR/CA coastline on Friday. It looks as though the ridge
will continue to limit storms over NM into Friday, but the Pacific
Northwest low will begin a progression inland with its remnants
being the primary influencer with the weekend`s weather in NM.
Tropical cyclone activity in the far eastern Pacific will also be
influential along with any subtropical moisture taps, depending
how deep the late week low digs before moving inland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Just a few high-based, fair weather cumulus are expected over east
central to southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Breezy
conditions will also persist through sunset, mainly at eastern
sites. A cold front will sag into northeastern New Mexico tonight
into Monday morning with low stratus clouds and scattered MVFR
(ceilings less than 3000 ft) and spotty IFR (ceilings less than
1000 ft) conditions accompanying. Low clouds will burn off and
erode away through the late morning with showers and thunderstorms
developing in east central New Mexico Monday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No significant or widespread fire weather concerns are looming for
the next several days. Breezy and dry conditions will persist this
afternoon, mainly in eastern NM, through sunset. A moist backdoor
front will then arrive tonight from the northeast, setting the
stage for shower and thunderstorm development Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. Soaking rainfall potential is still fairly low to
moderate (20-60%) with central zones being the most likely to
receive at least 0.10" of rain Monday through Wednesday. Cooler
and more seasonable temperatures will also accompany the front and
associated showers/storms. Drier conditions look to wrap up the
work week Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds into NM
from TX. There is potential for the ridge to break down into next
weekend with low probability for additional showers and storms,
mostly in northwestern NM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  74  42  78 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  31  72  34  73 /   0   5  10  20
Cuba............................  39  73  41  71 /   0   5  10  40
Gallup..........................  29  74  32  78 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  32  73  35  74 /   0   5   5  30
Grants..........................  31  77  34  74 /   0   5  10  40
Quemado.........................  34  76  37  77 /   0   5   5  20
Magdalena.......................  46  76  49  73 /   0  10  10  50
Datil...........................  37  74  40  73 /   0   5  10  40
Reserve.........................  39  78  42  80 /   0   0  10  20
Glenwood........................  46  83  49  84 /   0   0  10  20
Chama...........................  34  66  36  66 /   0   5  10  30
Los Alamos......................  46  70  48  68 /   0  10  20  40
Pecos...........................  41  71  44  63 /   0  20  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  39  68  41  67 /   0  10  20  30
Red River.......................  31  62  34  60 /   0  10  30  30
Angel Fire......................  21  65  32  63 /   0  20  30  30
Taos............................  36  72  41  69 /   0  10  20  20
Mora............................  36  67  40  62 /   0  20  30  40
Espanola........................  40  77  45  74 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Fe........................  43  73  47  69 /   0  20  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  41  76  46  72 /   0  10  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  78  54  74 /   0  10  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  81  55  76 /   0  10  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  83  48  78 /   0  10  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  81  52  76 /   0  10  10  30
Belen...........................  48  84  52  81 /   0   5  10  40
Bernalillo......................  46  81  50  76 /   0  10  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  45  82  49  79 /   0  10  20  40
Corrales........................  47  81  50  77 /   0  10  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  47  82  51  79 /   0  10  10  40
Placitas........................  47  77  51  73 /   0  10  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  48  80  51  76 /   0  10  20  30
Socorro.........................  52  84  56  81 /   0   5  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  74  47  68 /   0  10  20  50
Tijeras.........................  47  75  49  70 /   0  10  20  50
Edgewood........................  42  75  47  68 /   0  20  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  77  44  70 /   0  20  20  50
Clines Corners..................  44  72  46  62 /   0  20  30  40
Mountainair.....................  44  76  47  71 /   0  10  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  46  76  48  71 /   0  10  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  54  80  55  75 /   5  20  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  46  73  46  65 /  10  20  20  50
Capulin.........................  38  63  42  58 /   5  20  40  40
Raton...........................  39  67  45  61 /   5  20  40  30
Springer........................  40  71  46  64 /   0  20  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  38  69  44  60 /   0  20  40  40
Clayton.........................  46  64  47  60 /  10  10  60  40
Roy.............................  42  68  47  60 /   0  20  50  40
Conchas.........................  48  75  51  66 /   5  30  50  30
Santa Rosa......................  48  76  50  65 /   5  30  50  40
Tucumcari.......................  51  76  51  67 /  10  30  50  30
Clovis..........................  57  80  55  69 /  10  30  40  30
Portales........................  57  83  56  73 /  20  30  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  54  81  55  70 /  10  30  50  30
Roswell.........................  60  86  60  76 /  10  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  53  81  54  71 /  10  30  20  40
Elk.............................  51  78  52  68 /  10  20  20  40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion