238 FXUS64 KOHX 281730 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Dry (mostly) through the week.
- Very warm, well above normal temperatures, trending a little cooler late week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The trend of dry conditions with pleasant nights and very warm (or hot) days will continue. In fact, some spots may top 90 degrees the next couple of days which is about 10 degrees above normal. The cooldown each night will allow patchy fog to form, especially along the Plateau.
Of course, we are watching the tropics with TD 9 over the Bahamas and Humberto further out in the Atlantic. Humberto will stay well away from the mainland and the center of TD 9 (expected to become Hurricane Imelda) is expected to stay offshore. But rainfall with TD 9 will impact the East Coast. Those planning beach vacations from the Carolinas to Florida will want to monitor rainfall forecasts and especially ocean conditions for high surf and rip currents.
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.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
As rainfall from TD 9 / Imelda impacts the East Coast Monday through Wednesday, a weak upper trough over the Southeast may draw some moisture inland, perhaps spreading a few showers into our Plateau counties by Tuesday. This is very uncertain, but it does not look like much rainfall if it does happen. Overall, models have been trending more eastward with rainfall forecasts.
Otherwise, dry high pressure will continue to be the dominant wx pattern through the week. Late week, a weak backdoor front will bring a modest cooling trend.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR across Middle TN terminals through the period. Winds prevail NE, with afternoon gusts 12-18 kts.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 59 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 57 81 57 79 / 0 10 10 20 Columbia 60 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 59 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 58 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 60 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 59 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Sizemore
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion