Cee Vee, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS64 KLUB 031108
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the
   weekend.
- A pattern change is possible during the early to middle portion
   of next week which may provide a brief period of cooler
   weather and increased rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Other than today`s forecast highs dialing back a smidge from
Thursday`s summerlike readings, the overall quiet and dry theme is
stuck on repeat as we remain under a pesky upper ridge. This ridge
will at least undergo a slow decay today as it compresses in
response to an upper low trekking east from northern California, so
we`re looking forward to highs only around 10 degrees above normal
instead of nearly 15. Water vapor imagery continues to show a pool
of mid-level moisture trapped under the ridge from the TX Panhandle
to the South Plains, so we should see another round of high-based
afternoon cumulus. Some of these clouds could manage virga or
sprinkles across our northwestern counties along a low-level thermal
ridge where vertical mixing should be maximized. Otherwise, dry and
light southerly flow holds firm through tonight allowing for
comfortably cool lows in the 50s on the Caprock.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The low/trough discussed in the short term will eject from the
Intermountain West, accelerating over the central and northern High
Plains as it deamplifies late Saturday. The shortwave will make
quick progress through the Upper Midwest, crossing over into south-
central Canada by Sunday evening. Increasing southwesterly flow
aloft in advance of and during the trough passage to our north will
induce falling surface pressure in the lee of the Rockies. The net
result locally will be a tightening pressure gradient and modestly
breezy winds both Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately, for those
wanting precipitation, rain doesn`t appear to be in the cards as the
best lift and deep-layer moisture will stay well north of the
region. In the wake of this storm system, a cool surface high will
spill out of Canada and into the center of the nation Sunday into
Monday. However, flat upper ridging over the Deep South is progged
to build westward across Texas early next week, which will tend to
impede the southward push of the cooler air. Given this, it is not
surprising that the general consensus of the NWP is that the frontal
zone will stall out to our north early next week. That could change
around the middle of next week as energy pivoting through broad
troughing over much of Canada (and skirting the Upper Midwest and
the Great Lakes) on Tuesday gives the surface ridge a reinforcing
shot. The thrust of the push will be to the east, but we could see
cooler air attempt to briefly backdoor into the region. If this
happens, temperatures could dip to near or even below average for a
day or two. The approach of the frontal zone and an increase in deep-
layer moisture will renew rain chances, though the mid-upper ridge
isn`t expected to completely yield, which could hamper overall rain
chances/coverage. For now, we have accepted the NBM`s slight to
chance PoPs, with the greatest coverage and chances centered around
late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Aside from the middle of next
week, above average temperatures will dominate, though they will
back off a bit from what was experienced earlier this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion