Chapin, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS62 KCAE 210542
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
142 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region with above average
temperatures expected again on Sunday. Dry conditions continue
to start off the work week, then rain chances will be on the
increase from mid- week onward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry with temperatures above average today.
Early this morning: Mostly clear skies across the forecast area
currently. With significant low level moisture in place, as much of
the area received measurable rain yesterday, starting to see fog
develop along rivers and lakes on satellite imagery. Patchy fog will
continue to be possible, especially near bodies of water,
dissipating shortly after sunrise.
Robust high pressure over New England today with surface ridging
extending southward along the East Coast, pushing a backdoor cold
front into the area. This will lead to strengthening low level
northeast winds, leading to drier air moving in. By this afternoon,
nearly all HREF members are showing PWATs less than an inch and a
quarter. As a result, unlike the last few days, not expecting any
diurnally driven showers or storms. This cold front may lead to
highs a degree or two lower but with upper heights similar to
yesterday, not expecting a significant cool down associated with
this front. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight
also a couple degrees cooler, in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry to start off the work week.
Upper flow pattern will be out of the southwest on Monday ahead
of a weak approaching shortwave trough. This shortwave tracks
well north of the area on Tuesday, and the upper pattern will
flatten out as it moves east of the region. Low-level moisture
will remain somewhat limited, with pwat readings averaging around
1.25 inches on Monday, then slowly increasing on Tuesday. Most
guidance is keeping the forecast area dry through the period,
with best chances for any rainfall confined to the coast, and
along the mountains. With that being said, still would not be
surprised if an isolated shower or two develops each afternoon
somewhere across the cwa. Not high enough coverage or confidence
to include mention though. Highs Monday look like they`ll be in
the upper 80s again. With plenty of sun expected on Tuesday,
model clusters are averaging around 90 degrees for afternoon
highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
- Above normal temperatures through Thursday, then turning
  cooler.
As we move from Wednesday onward the flat upper pattern will
transition to more southwesterly as a deepening upper trough
begins to develop west of the region through the end of the
week. Models still showing this trough cutting off by Friday
west of the region, keeping a deeper southwesterly flow east of
it. This pattern will aid in bringing an increase in pwat
values, with readings reaching to between 1.8 to 2 inches
Thursday night int Friday. This should result in solid rain
chances east of the upper low into next weekend, and the model
blends are consistent with at least chance pops pretty much
from Thursday afternoon onward into the weekend.
With warm advection pattern over the area Wednesday and
Thursday, heights will slowly rise in response to the amplifying
of the pattern, keeping above normal temps through Thursday,
then increasing clouds and rainfall coverage should lead to
cooler temperatures by Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Early morning fog possible, becoming VFR after sunrise.
Satellite imagery early this morning is already showing fog
developing mainly along lakes and rivers. With widespread rain
yesterday, significant low level moisture will continue to lead
to the potential for fog at all terminals. Mainly MVFR
restrictions expected, although there is the potential for tempo
IFR visibility restrictions at AGS/OGB, similar to previous
nights. Once again, any fog will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Much drier air will move into the area today, limiting
the potential for showers and storms with winds increasing out
of the northeast between 5-10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
early next week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion