Chapman Ranch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

598
FXUS64 KCRP 161116
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Low (10-30%) shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and low to
  medium (25-45%) chances Wednesday through Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Not much chance in terms of the forecast once again. We are expected
to see some shower activity through the remainder of the week. This
is due to some expected shortwaves that will ride the eastern
periphery of the aforementioned 700-850mb ridge that will slowly
progress to the east. Moisture will continue returning into the area
returning to normal levels to slightly above normal levels (1.8-2.0
inches). This will be coupled with the daily seabreeze instability
that develops with daytime heating to allow for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Chances increase during the mid-latter
portions of the week (Wed. and Thurs.) as models continue to hint at
a near surface low that will develop over eastern Mexico. This would
further enhance lift allowing for a low to medium chances (25-55%)
across the Southern Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains. PoPs will
hang around 20-30% through the weekend before potentially increasing
once again next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with light
and variable winds tonight and tomorrow night and moderate winds
during the afternoon hours. A few passing showers with the
potential for moderate to heavy rain will impact CRP this more
for a few more hours and could reach ALI if they hold together,
however, current thinking is that any shower will dissipate before
reaching ALI this morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly conditions
expected to persist throughout the week. There will be a low to
medium chance (35-65%) of showers and thunderstorms through the
week into the weekend. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5 feet
through midweek then from 2 to 3 feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  74  90  76 /  10  20  30  10
Victoria          94  69  94  69 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            96  72  96  74 /  10   0  20   0
Alice             93  71  93  71 /  10  10  40  10
Rockport          91  77  90  78 /  10  20  30  20
Cotulla           96  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        92  72  91  73 /  10  10  50  10
Navy Corpus       88  79  88  80 /  20  30  40  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion