Charlevoix, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS63 KAPX 071041
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
641 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Chilly temperatures and scattered showers expected today.
-Additional rainfall chances return this Tuesday, favoring locations
along eastern upper.
-Temperatures return back to climatological normal by midweek this
week. Mainly precip-free conditions continue through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Sharp midlevel troughing currently resting its
axis over the Great Lakes region continues to pull a cold air mass
into the Northwoods this weekend. Northwest winds combined with
enough instability should continue chances of precip this Sunday.
Midlevel heights begin to rise during the overnight hours and
allowing a more stable weather pattern to return to the region this
week.
Forecast Details...
Today...Light scattered showers will continue a similar weather
pattern at the surface compared to the past few days. Low level
instability combined with cool northwest flow will continue showers
across the CWA. Low amounts of QPF are expected as model soundings
depict a shallow moisture profile with dry air aloft. Low
probabilities (10-30%) of greater than a tenth of an inch of total
rainfall between Little and Grand Traverse Bay with the aid of lake
enhancement. Otherwise the majority of the CWA and expect only a few
others as instability tracks eastward. Previously mentioned
troughing will keep a cool Canadian air mass occupying the region
for one final day with highs barely breaking 60 near the shorelines
and highs remaining in the upper 50s.
Tonight...Midlevel heights begin to rise during the overnight hours
resulting is surface high pressure to slowly build across the
northwoods. No precipitation is expected during the overnight hours
as cloud cover clears just after sunset tonight. Clear skies and
radiational cooling processes will allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 30s for interior northern lower. Localized frost remains
possible as guidance has probabilities of overnight localized lows
starting to approach freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Monday and Tuesday... Midlevel longwave troughing recedes northward
this Monday and Tuesday. An embedded height disturbance is expected
to deliver another round of showers to the Great Lakes Region during
the Tuesday timeframe as it rides along the base of the trough.
Current ensembles display low to medium probabilities (20-40%) of
0.25" of QPF across Eastern Upper while northern lower can expect
lesser amounts closer to a general tenth or less. Guidance continues
to hint at bits of embedded instability to continue chances of
embedded thunder aloft, but overall... most locations along eastern
upper can just expect beneficial rainfall.
Wednesday and Thursday... Midlevel split flow pattern begins to
develop by midweek, with northern stream flow over the northern half
of Canada and southern stream troughing currently over the west
coast. A lack of flow aloft of the Great Lakes region will support
surface high pressure to linger across the eastern half of the
CONUS. Precip-free weather is expected along with temperatures
remaining near climatological normal for early September.
Friday and Saturday Outlook...Weak ridging pattern develops at the
end of the week with its axis centered over the Great Lakes region.
Once again, sunny skies and highs around 70 will be supported this
Friday and Saturday. Long range guidance begins to hint at some
unstable conditions returning just beyond the forecast period. Too
early to advertise, but the end of the weekend into early next week
will be the next return of potentially beneficial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR prevails handily with time through the day today as a
disturbance moves to the north and east, with the most impactful
weather favoring the front of the forecast period. Will have to
contend with some lingering FG / BR at MBL into this morning that
may briefly keep things IFR to LIFR at times through 13-14z this
morning. Some MVFR showers will be possible at the other TAF sites.
In addition, NW winds will be breezy, with gusts approaching 20kts
at times. As high pressure moves into the area later this afternoon
into tonight, rain chances plummet, winds trend weaker, and CIGs
rise above 5,000ft across the board.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion