Cibolo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

712
FXUS64 KEWX 061101
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
601 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend
  as a front moves across South Central Texas, with the
  potential for locally heavy rain and possible flooding today
  and Sunday.
- Rain chances begin to taper off Monday with a return of drier
  and warmer weather by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
As of around midnight Saturday morning, our weekend cold front was
located north of our region from San Angelo to Waco to Tyler and was
on its way south. Hi-res guidance is in good agreement that the
front will be moving across South-Central Texas today, with the
frontal zone reaching the Balcones Escarpment late morning before
broadening across the remainder of the region over the rest of the
day. The 00Z Del Rio sounding from Friday evening showed moisture
was primarily confined to the mid-levels, but that is changing this
morning as strengthening southeasterly low-level flow slots Gulf air
beneath Hurricane Lorena`s remnant moisture and toward the arriving
frontal boundary.
The front brings along with it chances for isolated to scattered
convective showers and storms across South-Central Texas today, and
models have trended upwards with regard to rain chances and amounts.
Mid-level vorticity overlapping with the front will enhance lift
along the front but looks to be diffuse, so there may be a few
distinct flareups of storm activity in tandem with each arriving
impulse of mid-level energy. Chances for rain on Saturday look
highest in the late morning to early evening both along the front
from the Rio Grande/southern Edwards Plateau through the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor, with a secondary region of rain in the
form of isolated coastal shower/storm activity moving across the
Coastal Plains ahead of the front. Mean precipitable water values in
the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range are supportive of some heavier downpours
along the front with slightly higher chances over the southern
Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, and Rio Grande where moisture
transport vectors are more convergent with the mean wind and
instability is higher. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has
highlighted the southern Edwards Plateau and areas along the Rio
Grande near Del Rio and Eagle Pass under a level 1 of 4 (Marginal)
risk for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding for
today. The high-resolution models indicate that the heaviest cells
may be capable of producing localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals,
and this is reflected in the 00Z HREF LPMM QPF field. Broader areal
totals up to about a half inch are forecast.
Temperatures this afternoon will be split between 80s north of
the front and 90s to the south with the aid of compressional
heating. Rain-cooled outflows from shower activity along the front
will help speed the front along, so for some areas today`s highs
will occur relatively early in the day before the rains arrive.
Rain chances are expected to briefly decrease early Saturday night
following loss of daytime heating and initial stabilization from the
daytime convection and the cooler post-frontal airmass. However,
southerly low level flow is expected to quickly recover in response
to the overlapping subtropical jet intensifying aloft. This will
lead to a slight remoistening and destabilization of the post-
frontal air and promote moisture convergence, allowing for another
period of showers and storms beginning Sunday morning and continuing
throughout the day.
Chances for rain are indicated throughout South-Central Texas
Sunday, though the northward extent of these chances will depend on
how far north the moisture gets before the divergent flow passes.
Model uncertainty in the hi-res models is also high for Sunday. Due
to the frontal orientation and progression through our region, mean
low-level moisture transport Sunday will tend to arrive from the
east and mainly ahead of the front. This favors a moisture plume
moving across the Winter Garden region and up to the Rio Grande into
the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. This suggests
heavier rainfall could be weighted towards those areas, a tendency
most bullishly and consistently reflected in the ENS ensemble suite
but also shared across the GEFS and GEPS, as well as the spatially
skillful GraphCast GFS and ECMWF-AIFS. The extent of rainfall Sunday
will be sensitive to the extent of preceding activity and how
organized the remaining pulses of mid-level energy from former
Hurricane Lorena are. Models will likely continue to vary in the
placement and intensity of rainfall, so stay informed and continue
to monitor the latest forecast. That said... high precipitable water
values are expected to persist through Sunday, so locally heavy
rainfall is a possibility for storms making use of this environment.
The WPC has maintained a level 1 of 4 risk for all of South-Central
Texas for locally heavy rainfall capable of producing localized
flash flooding Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
As we head into Sunday night and Monday, increasingly
meridional flow from an amplifying trough over the Mississippi
River Valley will push the front and its associated moisture
more fully out of our area, though residual moisture supports
some lingering isolated to scattered showers and storms into
Monday, moreso over the western half of the CWA where the low-
level winds will keep moisture around for a little longer.
Ridging then builds of northwestern Mexico and eventually slides
east into our area midweek into late week, resulting in quieter
and drier weather.
After being tempered by the rain and the front over the weekend and
Monday, daytime highs are forecast to climb back into the mid 90s
over the course of next week. With slightly drier continental air,
overnight lows are expected to range from the mid and upper 60s
north of I-10 to the low 70s to the south.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Areas of MVFR CIGs will linger through most of this morning,
possibly into early afternoon, then lift to VFR. CIGs lower to
MVFR later this evening into tonight. As the front makes its
way across our area, SHRA/TSRA will develop and have maintained
the PROB30s for later this morning through early this evening.
Will monitor radar/model trends for possible updates to timing.
S to SE winds ahead of the front shift to N to NE with its
passage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  71  89 /  40  60  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  88  70  89 /  30  60  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  90  70  90 /  40  60  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            68  83  68  85 /  40  60  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  89  73  90 /  60  70  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  85  69  88 /  40  60  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  90  71  90 /  50  70  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  90  70  90 /  40  60  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  88  71  89 /  40  70  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  90  73  90 /  40  70  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           75  91  74  91 /  40  70  30  30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM...Tran
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion