Cimarron, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KDDC 241010
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flooding concerns continue as the northern counties continue to
  see more rain through the morning.
- A dry and quiet weather stretch is expected to last through
  the forecast period and beyond with a synoptic pattern shift.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
SW Kansas is still under the influence of the deep positively tilted
trough that RAP Mesoanalysis moving across the eastern Great Plains.
On the back side of the system, storms are wrapping around and
dumping more rain into the CWA. These storms/showers have remained
unorganized and very scattered. Due to the limited thermodynamic
potential, the severe threat early this morning is virtually zero.
The flooding threat, however, remains poised to cause issues across
western Kansas. Currently a Flood Warning is in effect for Trego and
Ness counties. The nearby counties (including Logan and Scott) has
also received large amounts of rain that approach or surpass radar
based QPE flash flood guidance. These areas are also expected to
continue seeing moderate to light rain into the morning. These
showers are forecast to slowly taper off into the morning with most,
if not all, dissipated or east of the forecast area by noon.
With the moisture, a moderate (20 mph) north wind bringing CAA,
and cloud cover, Wednesday is expected to be cooler with highs
in the low 70s. This is expected to be the coolest day of the
forecast period before warming back up into the 80s.
Beyond Wednesday, a significant synoptic pattern change is expected
bringing a long and very dry stretch of benign weather. The LREF,
ECMWF, and GFS all are in agreement that the CWA will see ridging
building and moving over the forecast area. At the same time, a cut-
off low is progged to move near the CA/AZ border. These two, in
combination with the troughing that just moved eastward of the
CWA, is poised to create an Omega Blocking pattern. This will
allow the ridging to dig in and last over Kansas for the next
few days. For as long as this pattern dominates, light winds
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NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion