Clair Mel City, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS62 KTBW 030734
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Increasing winds will continue to cause hazardous boating
   conditions beginning through Sunday morning.
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day,
   mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Currently at the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered
over the Eastern Seaboard is established to the north of Florida as
a weak tropical wave is starting to develop over the southern
Bahamas. Today through the weekend, the ridge will hold in place as
this tropical wave lifts northwest into the eastern Gulf, creating a
tight pressure gradient over the forecast area and supporting rather
breezy northeast and east winds. With ample available moisture,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and
early evening will develop each day and move generally east to west
across the area, with the highest rain chances over the interior.
Sunday through the first half of next week, surface ridging will
remain centered north of Florida, but the pressure gradient and
resultant winds will relax a little bit. As mid level ridging builds
in overhead, rain chances will also drop slightly Tuesday through
the end of the week, with isolated to scattered coverage expected
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Some MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as moisture moves
west across the area, but VFR conditions are expected to return
by around 14z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon, and could cause periods of reduced flight
category disruptions at area terminals, mainly from 18-23z. After
the rain clears out, reduced ceilings could cause MVFR conditions
to develop again during the overnight hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
High pressure is continuing to build in from the north as a weak
surface wave develops near southern Florida this weekend and
lifts northwest into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will continue
to create a tight pressure gradient with breezy east and northeast
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist through at least
Saturday night, then conditions will gradually improve early next
week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Surface high pressure ridging north of Florida is setting up breezy
northeast and east winds today and Saturday, with scattered to
numerous showers each day, mainly in the afternoons. No humidity
concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  88  75 /  20  10  40  20
FMY  87  73  88  74 /  40  20  50  20
GIF  87  73  85  73 /  30  20  50  40
SRQ  88  72  89  74 /  30  10  40  20
BKV  87  70  86  71 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  86  75  86  75 /  20  10  30  20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.
&&
$$
Fleming

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion