Clarks, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

468
FXUS64 KCRP 231845
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
145 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Cold front will bring medium to high chances (60-80%) for
  showers and thunderstorms across South Texas Wednesday night
  into Thursday
- Marginal risk of severe storms (damaging winds primary threat)
  and flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Latest CAM guidance is showing hints at an earlier FROPA timing
for the `cold` front, moving across South Texas beginning as
early as Wednesday evening and continuing slowly into early
Thursday morning. Global models are slower with FROPA but in past
events, these shallow fronts proceed further south than expected
and are better reflected in CAMs. Ahead of the front, moisture
will pool significantly, leading to PWAT values near the 99th
percentile across the region. A frontal boundary, seabreeze, mid-
level PVA activity as the primary lifting mechanisms, combined
with 99th percentile moisture, warrants a medium to high (60-80%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across South Texas. There is a
marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 of 5), mainly for locally
strong outflows/gusts along the leading line of convection. In
addition, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash
flooding for heavy rain rates training or nearly stationary over
the same area.
There is lower confidence on how far south the front will push
heading into the day on Thursday, and therefore rain chances dip
to range from 30-50% Thursday afternoon. As the surface high
centers over the ARKLATEX region, a reinforcing surge of high
pressure followed by much drier air in its wake from the north to
northeast tries to push into the area Friday. So far, it looks
more likely that this drier air (dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s) will remain to our north to northeast and not
infiltrate South Texas.
HREF indicates a mean rainfall total through early Thursday
morning of up to 2.5" in local areas stretching from Victoria to
Laredo. However, there is a large spread of 1-3" from the 25-75th
percentile, showing uncertainties on just how much rainfall will
occur with this event. It is important however to note that this
does not include any additional rainfall after 7am Thursday.
This weekend looks to be dry with low rain chances returning early
next week as moisture returns to normal with PWATs around 1.5".
High temperatures will drop about 10 degrees from ranging 90-102
on Wednesday, to 85-95 Thursday through Monday. Clear skies and
lower dewpoints will allow for efficient cooling inland in the
wake of the front, dropping low temperatures into the mid 60s over
the inland Coastal Plains beginning Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast across all
terminals with the exception of MVFR TEMPOs at LRD/COT from 13-15Z
and PROB30 showers/storms over VCT the rest of this afternoon.
Winds will decrease to around 10 knots or less tonight, with rain
chances increasing near the end of the forecast period. Expect
mentions of weather to be incorporating in the upcoming 00Z
package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly flow will
continue through Wednesday night before shifting to the
north/northeast briefly on Thursday as a cold front moves across
the waters before returning to onshore flow Thursday night or
Friday, depending on a reinforcing surge of high pressure
temporarily shifting winds northeast to east. Medium chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday will increase to high chances
Wednesday night through Thursday. Rain chances decrease to low
Friday and will persist through this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  94  75  88 /   0  40  70  70
Victoria          76  95  70  86 /   0  60  80  60
Laredo            78 102  75  90 /   0  20  70  60
Alice             76  98  73  89 /   0  40  70  70
Rockport          80  92  75  88 /  10  40  80  70
Cotulla           77  99  73  89 /   0  30  80  60
Kingsville        76  96  74  89 /   0  40  60  70
Navy Corpus       81  90  78  86 /  10  40  80  70
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion