Clayton, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

569
FXUS65 KABQ 182355 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor western and central parts of the
  state on Friday.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the
  Ruidoso Friday.
- Lower forecast confidence beyond this weekend, with the
  potential for atmospheric moisture to trend down further and
  the 2025 North American Monsoon to diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
PWATs are forecast to surge to above the 90th percentile over the
next 24hrs as the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Mario moves
northeast over the region. Meanwhile, a round of scattered slow-
moving convection is forecast this afternoon and early evening
across southern portions of our area, bringing a locally heavy
rainfall threat to the southern mountains and potential for flash
flooding to the Ruidoso area burn scars where a Flash Flood Watch
is currently in effect. A much more active day is anticipated
across western and central NM Friday, with scattered to numerous
storms that will produce heavy rainfall. We considered a Flash
Flood Watch, but storm motion will be on the uptrend Friday with
500mb winds forecast to increase by 5-10kts over today which
should be sufficient to limit the flood threat to training storms.
The main area of concern for Flash Flooding for Friday is the
Ruidoso area, but will let the next shift take a closer look with
regard to watch issuance. The added cloud cover and rain cooling
will help to keep daytime temperatures below average across much
of central and western NM on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Progressively drier air will be steered over the region through
the weekend, around the upper high centered over northern MX.
As a result, a downtrend in convective coverage is forecast
Saturday with only isolated storms at best on Sunday. The
forecast for early to mid next week is of increasingly lower
forecast confidence given the disparate 12Z medium range model
solutions and even weighting to the various model clusters. The
12Z ECMWF is showing decent run-to-run consistency with an
amplified synoptic pattern and cut-off lows, drying out NM and
bringing a notable cold front through late Mon/Tue. However, the
12Z GFS brings moisture back with a vengeance on Monday as a
Pacific low approaches slowly through Thursday, with good chances
for showers and storms each day. For now, we favor the more
consistent ECMWF solution and our forecast is weighted heavier
toward that scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms remain across south central NM
with one stray storm across the northeast. These storms will
diminish this evening. Localized areas of low stratus may
redevelop tonight across portions of northeast NM. Best chances
will be along the I-25 corridor between KRTN and KLVS after 06Z
and prior to 15Z Fri. Showers will form in the morning across
western NM, expanding through 18Z. Then as storms shift eastward
through the afternoon hours, storms will intensify with gusty and
erratic winds, heavy downpours and perhaps small hail as well.
Most western and central NM TAF sites have a very good chance at
being impacted by storms on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Humidity and chances for wetting rain will
ramp up overnight into Friday across central and western NM as the
remnant moisture form Tropical Storm Mario moves over the region.
Moisture will gradually trend down through the weekend and into
early next week, with some warming and drying bringing daytime
temperatures to above average most areas. A backdoor front will
move down the eastern plains on Tuesday or Tuesday night, bringing
some higher humidity and cooler temperatures. The forecast for
early to mid next week is of low forecast confidence, with the
potential for the 2025 North American Monsoon to wind-down.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  79  55  81 /   0  30  20   5
Dulce...........................  40  74  42  77 /   0  40  20  20
Cuba............................  49  73  47  77 /   0  60  30  20
Gallup..........................  51  77  47  79 /  10  50  30  10
El Morro........................  52  73  48  75 /  10  70  40  20
Grants..........................  52  75  48  79 /  10  70  40  20
Quemado.........................  52  74  49  77 /  20  70  40  20
Magdalena.......................  55  73  53  76 /  20  70  40  30
Datil...........................  50  71  48  74 /  20  70  40  30
Reserve.........................  51  78  49  83 /  40  70  30  20
Glenwood........................  55  81  54  87 /  50  60  30  20
Chama...........................  41  69  41  71 /   0  50  30  40
Los Alamos......................  53  73  51  74 /   0  50  30  20
Pecos...........................  49  74  49  75 /   5  50  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  47  73  46  74 /   0  30  20  20
Red River.......................  38  64  39  65 /   0  30  20  20
Angel Fire......................  33  68  35  69 /   0  30  20  20
Taos............................  45  76  45  77 /   0  30  20  20
Mora............................  43  72  45  73 /   5  40  30  20
Espanola........................  50  79  51  82 /   0  40  30  10
Santa Fe........................  53  75  52  76 /   5  50  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  51  78  51  79 /   5  50  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  79  58  82 /   5  50  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  81  57  83 /   5  50  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  82  56  85 /   5  50  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  81  58  84 /   5  50  30  10
Belen...........................  56  82  55  84 /  10  50  40  10
Bernalillo......................  57  82  56  85 /   5  50  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  82  53  84 /  10  50  30  10
Corrales........................  58  82  57  85 /   5  50  40  10
Los Lunas.......................  57  82  55  84 /  10  50  30  10
Placitas........................  56  79  55  80 /   5  50  40  10
Rio Rancho......................  58  81  57  84 /   5  50  30  10
Socorro.........................  59  82  57  86 /  20  60  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  74  50  76 /   5  60  30  10
Tijeras.........................  54  76  52  77 /   5  60  40  10
Edgewood........................  49  76  48  78 /   5  50  40  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  78  46  79 /   5  50  40  10
Clines Corners..................  50  74  49  75 /   5  40  40  10
Mountainair.....................  50  75  50  77 /  10  60  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  50  75  50  77 /  10  60  50  20
Carrizozo.......................  57  77  55  80 /  20  60  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  51  69  52  74 /  20  70  60  30
Capulin.........................  46  75  48  75 /   0  10  20  10
Raton...........................  46  78  47  79 /   0  20  20  20
Springer........................  47  80  48  82 /   5  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  47  74  48  77 /   5  40  40  20
Clayton.........................  53  82  57  82 /   0   5  20  10
Roy.............................  50  78  51  81 /   5  10  30  10
Conchas.........................  55  85  57  87 /   5  10  40  10
Santa Rosa......................  53  82  55  84 /  10  20  50  10
Tucumcari.......................  53  84  57  85 /   5  10  30  10
Clovis..........................  58  84  61  87 /  10  10  20  10
Portales........................  58  85  61  87 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  57  84  58  88 /  10  20  40  10
Roswell.........................  62  86  62  89 /  20  20  40  10
Picacho.........................  55  79  55  84 /  20  50  50  20
Elk.............................  53  74  53  82 /  20  60  50  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion