Cloudcroft, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

140
FXUS64 KEPZ 111650
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1011 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Thunderstorms push west to east Friday, Friday night, and
   through the day Saturday.
- Much drier and quieter Sunday, returning low end storm chances
  during the work week.
- Above normal temperatures through Friday, becoming below to
   near normal Saturday and onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Upper high will slowly meander eastward over central TX today.
Meanwhile, an upper low is taking shape over the Great Basin today
which will funnel a monsoonal plume over the Continental Divide and
eastern AZ today allowing for some isolated to scattered activity.
The best instability parameters look to be more so in Arizona today
which will limit the strength of storms in our CWA. Gusty outflow
winds up to 50 mph possible today. Blowing dust could also get
lofted up on the playa. Tomorrow looks more active as the upper
trough will act as a lifting mechanism for storms. Better moisture
gets pushed into the area in response to the low. PW values shoot
up to above normal thresholds with values generally 1.2" and
1.3". Although above average moisture will be overhead, storms
will be moving at a good clip. Bulk wind shear will be around
20-30KT allowing for organized multicells. This is in line with
what the CAMs are suggesting. It looks like much of the activity
will be along and west of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon but by
the late afternoon/evening time frame, t-storms will progress
eastward into the overnight hours as the trough progresses
eastward. Model soundings showing a lot of tall and skinny CAPE
profiles which signals that storms will be efficient rain makers,
however the presence of added shear should help alleviate some of the
flooding threat. Training storms are possible (where storms
repeatedly rain over an area) which could cause flooding. By
Saturday, the plume will be focused over central and eastern NM
which is where the main focus for storms will be. Looks like we
keep good moisture (PWs of 1.1" to 1.3"), but lesser activity out
west expected. Even better shear will be present Saturday (0-6km
bulk shear of 35-45KT) which is plenty for organized
thunderstorms. CAPE values don`t look too exciting (~1000J/kg or
less) but drier mid level air looks to move in Saturday which
could help create some small hail. Model soundings still have a
tall and skinny CAPE profile.
Sunday looks quiet as we`re on the dry side of the trough. By early
next week, moisture looks to push in from the south leading to
continued low end t-storm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Expect minor afternoon
breezes with gusts up to 20KT out of the southeast/south. Isolated
to scattered storms expected along the AZ/NM border and
Continental Divide area, but not expecting storms at terminals.
Storms that occur will diminish soon after sunset leaving
lingering mid and upper level clouds tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1011 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Low fire danger for the week ahead as min RHs stay above critical
thresholds (lowlands: 20-40% and mountains: generally 40-60%). 20
foot winds will be a bit breezy compared to what we`ve been
experiencing. Tomorrow afternoons 20 foot wind speeds will be
around 5-12 mph but speeds become 4-9 mph each afternoon the
remainder of the week. Thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow with
a focus being along and west of the Rio Grande tomorrow
afternoon, storms persist overnight and into Saturday as storm
chances push eastward. Storms will focus across central and
eastern NM, pushing even further eastward Saturday evening. Much
drier conditions expected Sunday but low end t-storm chances
return early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  72  94  71 /   0   0  30  40
Sierra Blanca            90  61  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces               92  65  89  64 /   0  10  30  40
Alamogordo               93  65  91  65 /   0   0  30  40
Cloudcroft               71  48  68  48 /   0   0  30  40
Truth or Consequences    91  65  87  63 /   0  10  50  60
Silver City              86  60  81  57 /  20  20  70  70
Deming                   95  66  90  64 /   0  10  40  50
Lordsburg                92  66  87  63 /  30  20  50  50
West El Paso Metro       94  71  92  70 /   0   0  30  40
Dell City                94  63  91  67 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               87  62  85  63 /   0   0  20  30
Fabens                   94  69  93  70 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Teresa             92  67  91  67 /   0   0  30  30
White Sands HQ           93  67  91  67 /   0   0  30  40
Jornada Range            92  64  90  64 /   0  10  30  40
Hatch                    95  64  92  65 /   0  10  50  50
Columbus                 95  67  91  67 /  10  10  40  50
Orogrande                91  64  90  65 /   0   0  20  40
Mayhill                  81  52  79  54 /   0   0  30  30
Mescalero                82  52  80  53 /   0   0  30  50
Timberon                 79  51  77  52 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                  84  54  80  52 /  10  10  70  70
Hillsboro                91  61  88  58 /   0  10  60  60
Spaceport                91  62  88  62 /   0  10  50  50
Lake Roberts             86  56  82  53 /  10  10  70  70
Hurley                   89  61  83  58 /  10  10  60  60
Cliff                    92  63  88  60 /  30  20  60  60
Mule Creek               88  59  83  56 /  30  30  70  50
Faywood                  88  62  84  60 /  10  10  50  60
Animas                   92  65  88  63 /  30  20  50  50
Hachita                  92  64  88  63 /  10  10  50  50
Antelope Wells           91  64  87  62 /  20  10  60  40
Cloverdale               86  62  83  61 /  30  20  50  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion