985 FXUS62 KFFC 291034 AFDFFCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 634 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- No direct impacts are expected from Imelda in North and Central GA.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday with dry conditions the rest of the week.
- High temps falling into the mid 70s and breezy winds each afternoon will lead to fall-like conditions through late week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A quiet morning to start the work week across north and central Georgia under mostly clear skies with a light easterly breeze and humid temps in the mid to upper 60s. These conditions are being driven by two primary synoptic features, a nearly stationary mid- level low over the Carolinas, and Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas. While Imelda will not have any direct impacts on our area, it will influence the weather conditions through mid-week. That begins today, as low-level easterly flow across the region strengthens due to the influence of Imelda, and moisture pooled over the Carolinas will start to be brought into the eastern half of the state. This will lead to increasing cloud cover, but there will only be enough moisture around to support isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% PoPs), primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. The breezy easterly winds (sustained 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph) and high temperatures in the low 80s will make it feel a bit cooler than recent days.
Tonight through Tuesday morning, the stout easterly winds will continue to pool low level moisture over the area and lead to humid low temps in the mid to upper 60s. Despite the moisture, rain chances will again be low, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. These will be primarily focused across far north and northeast GA, where the mid-level low will retrograde over as Imelda shifts east into the Atlantic. The east-northeast surface winds will remain breezy, and high temps will again climb into the upper 70s to low 80s.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
By Wednesday when the longterm period starts, Imelda will be curving to the east as the cut off low that has been weakly spinning over the eastern CONUS pushes off into the Atlantic behind Imelda and Humberto. In it`s place a dome of high pressure looks to settle in across much of the southeast as early as Wednesday afternoon. This high pressure will filter in cool and dry conditions across the area with high temps into the mid 70s through Friday before warming just slightly into the weekend with the potential return of moisture late in the long term period. For Wednesday-Thursday the area will be still wedged between the low pressure system pushing off into the Atlantic with Imelda and the high pressure settling into the area. As a result the pressure gradient that sets up will lead to much of the area experiencing breezy conditions up to 25mph. With Imelda pushing further east over the latest runs, model guidance has backed off on higher wind gusts over the area so we are not expecting winds to reach wind advisory criteria at this time. Overall should see nice fall like conditions through at least Friday!
Into the weekend is where the potential for rain comes back into the forecast with PoPs topping out at 25% for now over central Georgia. It`s a bit too far out to put specifics into it but models are indicating a swing of energy as a low pressure system pushes across the gulf coast increasing moisture along our central Georgia counties. May get some marginal relief for areas that desperately need the rainfall!
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions expected through most of the day in the ATL area but there will be SCT MVFR CIGs around after mid-morning. MCN and AHN likely have BKN MVFR CIGs move in after 15Z, with ISO SHRA also possible 20-00Z. Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs likely develop at all sites after 00Z this evening and continue through Tue AM. Breezy E/ENE winds through the TAF period, with gusts up to 20kts during the day.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIGs tonight into Tuesday. High confidence on remaining elements.
Culver
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 65 79 61 / 20 20 10 0 Atlanta 82 67 82 64 / 10 10 10 0 Blairsville 79 59 77 56 / 20 20 40 10 Cartersville 85 64 83 62 / 10 10 20 0 Columbus 85 67 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 80 65 81 62 / 10 10 20 0 Macon 79 67 81 63 / 20 10 10 0 Rome 87 65 86 64 / 10 10 20 0 Peachtree City 82 65 83 62 / 10 10 10 0 Vidalia 80 68 82 63 / 60 10 20 0
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.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Culver
NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion