College Hill Park, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS61 KILN 200503
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
103 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue through today before rain chances
increase Sunday through at least the first half of the upcoming week.
Above normal temperatures will continue through early next week
before a wetter and cooler pattern develops toward the middle and end
of next week. Several rounds of showers and storms are likely through
the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Tranquil conditions remain entrenched across the region with some
cirrus beginning to overspread from the W. A large-scale pattern
change is underway across the ern third of the country as the once-
stagnant midlevel ridge pushes off to the E with broad-scale
troughing becoming established from the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes region. This pattern change will bring with it more widespread
and persistent rain chances through the upcoming week, although
conditions today should remain primarily dry as LL dry air holds across
the ILN FA.
Temps will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s by daybreak before
rebounding into the upper 80s once again amidst filtered sunshine.
Although higher moisture content will be streaming into the area
tonight into the day Sunday, a relative minimum in LL moisture will
be parked in the local area through the daytime, keeping precip
chances to a minimum (although not completely zero). There will be
some higher dewpoints both off to the NE and to the W of the ILN FA,
so suppose a stray SHRA or sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out
in central OH or across EC IN by late afternoon into early evening.
But the bulk of the ISO diurnally-driven activity should stay out of
the local area, with dry conditions prevailing for most of the area
through the near term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions should prevail in the local area tonight with a
gradual increase in overall cloud cover toward daybreak and beyond.
With light southerly flow setting up and a bit more in the way of
better LL moisture, temps will be a few degrees warmer tonight than
has been the case recently, with lows bottoming out in the lower to
mid 60s.
Deeper moisture will begin to advect into the local area late tonight
into Sunday with broad SW flow becoming established with the
approach of a midlevel S/W into the daytime. Forcing will increase
rather abruptly into the afternoon, with an expectation for scattered
SHRA/TSRA to develop and move to the NE through the local area by
early Sunday afternoon through early evening. Some moderate instby
(MLCAPE ~1200 J/kg), combined with enough deep-layer flow/shear to
support some organization, will allow for several multicell clusters
to develop and become the predominant storm mode. Suppose that some
isolated gusty winds will be possible in the strongest activity given
the relatively supportive LL thermodynamic environment and some
shear contributing to weak linear organization with the storms. The
environment and forcing should be fairly uniform across the local
area, so this activity will be possible just about anywhere through
the heart of the daytime. Loss of diurnally-driven instby toward/past
sunset should yield a decrease in coverage toward late evening.
Although, with the primary trof axis still hanging back to the W,
some forcing will remain in place overnight into Monday morning, with
some ISO activity linger through the overnight.
Highs on Sunday will still be above normal (lower 80s W to upper 80s
E), but should be several degrees cooler than has been the case in
the recent pattern, owing to more widespread cloud cover and SCT
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Robust H5 shortwave trough will eject through the Ohio Valley region
Sunday night into Monday. Deep layer southwesterly flow will also
develop, ushering in a more humid air mass from the Gulf. With the
combined upper level forcing and moisture influx, rain chances will
increase across the entire fa. The base of the shortwave trough will
swing through the ILN CWA Monday night, which will likely be when
the highest accumulating rainfall will occur in the extended
forecast period. Instability will remain marginal at best, but some
locally enhanced rainfall will occur with any convection that
develops.
The synoptic pattern through the remainder of the work week will
maintain mid level troughing across a large portion of the eastern
and central CONUS. The steep positive slope of this trough will
maintain the southwesterly flow, which will keep a humid air mass
intact. Combined with weak upper level forcing, episodic showers and
perhaps isolated storms (mainly during the daytime hours) can be
expected through the remainder of the period. CAMs will eventually
provide more insight on overall precip coverage for the mid-to-late
week period, but overall, a wetter pattern can be expected.
High temperatures will trend more towards seasonal normals for next
week, but the higher dewpoints will keep overnight lows milder.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with a low chance
of some brief river valley BR at KLUK in the hour or two around
sunrise. Increasing cirrus is expected through 12z.
Cloud cover will continue to increase through the daytime, with
thickening high clouds, and FEW/SCT afternoon VFR Cu development
expected once again.
Light E winds will prevail through the morning, with generally
SE winds around 6-8kts by the afternoon. Winds will go more
southerly around 5kts or less late in the period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ073-075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion