Collins, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS63 KIWX 061827
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light lake enhanced showers this evening along/north of the
  IN Toll Road will be the only chance for rainfall in the next
  7 days.
- Temperatures slowly warm starting Monday, with highs reaching
  the upper 70s to lower 80s by mid to late week.
- Dangerous swimming conditions will continue for southeastern
  Lake Michigan beaches into Sunday, especially in Berrien
  county.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Only wrinkle in an otherwise quiet forecast will take place over the
next 12 to 18 hours as another disturbance moves into the region
courtesy of the NW flow aloft A few high based showers have already
popped well ahead of this feature in west central Lower MI, but
cloud bases around 7 kft and large T/Td depressions limiting precip
to sprinkles at best. Same challenge exists with the main wave,
which will bring some increased moisture, but still seeing hints of
saturation/deeper moisture remaining above 800 mb. There will
definitely be a lake enhanced response with Delta Ts in the mid
teens, impressive eqls AOA 10 kft and 0-2 km Theta E Lapse rates
several degrees into the negative. A W to NW 925 flow favors any
clouds and development staying north of US-6 with greatest chances
for measurable precip likely staying in far southern Lower MI. If
moisture was deeper, we would be looking at extensive coverage of
rain showers. After collaboration with GRR have increased pops
somewhat into chc category. The possibility exists this may not be
high enough across N Berrien and Cass counties, but the anticipated
battle with the dry air warrants remaining conservative for now.
Main window will be between 2Z and 7Z with a quick taper off in
precip there after.
Sunday looks to be the last day of highs in the 60s as the deep
trough finally begins to pull NE. Overnight lows Monday morning
should be in the low to mid 40s, but as has been mentioned, some of
the traditionally cool spots in Hillsdale county could see a brief
visit with upper 30s. As the trough departs, temperatures will
slowly moderate back to normal levels (upper 70s) by Tuesday with
the greatest upper level ridging remains to our west. Low level
moisture return will be rather sparse with some 50 dewpoints
arriving from time to time, but also subject to mixing out during
peak heating. Afternoon RH values in the 35 to 45% range are
expected, which may aid in additional drying of fuels and also
continue to impact the drought conditions trying to take hold even
further.
One final element to monitor will be the continuation for hazardous
beach conditions into Sunday as the W to NW flow persists. Wind
speeds won`t be as strong as Friday, but the longevity of the
overall flow and 5 to 7 second periods will allow for a Moderate to
High Swim Risk, with the greatest concerns on the beaches of Berrien
county where the Beach Hazard Statement remains in place through
Sunday afternoon. Beach webcams showing the cool air mass along the
shores is keeping many people away to hopefully limit any potential
issues.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR through the period with cool cyclonic flow and diurnal
mixing supporting westerly gusts up to 20 kts, and a scattered
to broken stratocu deck near 6 kft. Westerly winds diminish
tonight with a lake enhanced sprinkle not out the question in
the vicinity of KSBN this afternoon into tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion