Concepcion, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

113
FXUS64 KCRP 061127
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Hazardous beach conditions ongoing due to minor coastal flooding.
  A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through at least this
  evening. Additional advisories will likely be needed this week.
- Dangerous swimming conditions early this week with a moderate to
  high rip current risk. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"
- Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through
  Thursday, before drier air diminishes rain chances heading into
  the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A surface coastal trough will interact with above normal moisture
and lead to a few morning showers and thunderstorms along the
Coastal Bend today. In fact, GOES satellite currently depicts PWAT
values maximized right over the Middle Texas Coast at around
1.75" (> 75th percentile). Following today, a broad mid-level
ridge centered over the SE CONUS will stretch into South Texas and
limit diurnally-driven rain chances to a low (20-30%) daily
through Thursday. Heading into the weekend, the mid-level ridge
will amplify and be positioned more directly overhead stretching
from northeastern Mexico to the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, a
mid- level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS. This
synoptic pattern will increase subsidence aloft and bring in drier
air, dropping PWAT values to near or slightly below normal;
therefore, rain chances have been left out this upcoming weekend.
High temperatures will continue to range from the low to mid 90s
with lows finally dropping into the mid 60s inland this upcoming
weekend due to the drier air.
As of writing this, full moon is occurring, causing astronomical
high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the bays
and islands of the Middle Texas Coast, up to 1.5 feet of beach
inundation. We`ll feel the effects from this full moon phase for at
least the next 3 days but other factors will be at play for
prolonged minor coastal flooding through this week:
- Persistent onshore or northeasterly flow: either assisting in pushing
   water onshore and/or enhancing the Ekman transport mechanism.
- Increased swell periods of 7-9 seconds continue to be observed,
   leading to greater wave runup.
- Moon is approaching perigee of the season, when gravitational pull
   is strongest due to the Moon`s closest approach to Earth. This
   actually doesn`t peak until the Supermoon in November.
Although there may be lull in coastal flooding Tuesday into
Wednesday, northeasterly winds strengthen once again Thursday and
greater confidence in additional coastal flooding. These conditions
will also promote a higher risk of rip currents, causing dangerous
swimming conditions. All beachgoers are urged to use caution, water
may make driving impossible on beach roads and rip currents can take
away even the strongest swimmers. Remember, "wave, yell, swim
parallel."
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Currently have VFR conditions across all terminals. Some MVFR
VSBYs/CIGs still possible for the next couple of hours. Low
chance for showers this morning/afternoon across CRP to VCT. East
to southeast winds today at 12 knots or less. Expecting MVFR VSBYs
early tomorrow morning for VCT/ALI.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A gentle east to southeasterly flow will become light and variable
today, then shift back to an east to southeasterly flow at a gentle
to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) tonight through Tuesday night. Winds
shift back northeasterly Wednesday, strengthening to moderate to
strong levels (BF 4-6) for the remainder of the work week. Low
(20- 40%) shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast
through Tuesday night before increasing to low to moderate
(30-50%) rain chances Wednesday through Thursday. Very low rain
chances of 10-20% close out the rest of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
An increase in moisture will keep minimum relative humidity above
30% through at least Thursday night. Sustained surface and 20 ft
winds will generally remain weak at less than 20 mph out of the
northeast to southeast. High temperatures will continue to run above
normal ranging from the low to mid 90s with daily low (20-40%)
shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday before drier air
filters in heading into the weekend. We could see brief periods of
relative humidity falling below 30% over the northern Brush Country
Friday and this upcoming weekend, but confidence is low. Overall,
critical fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  73  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
Victoria          91  69  93  70 /  30   0  20   0
Laredo            96  74  95  74 /  10   0  20  10
Alice             94  71  94  71 /  10   0  20  10
Rockport          89  76  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           95  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        92  71  92  72 /  10  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       87  79  88  78 /  30  10  20  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion