Conchas Dam, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS65 KABQ 261822 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1222 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- A storm system diving into the desert southwest will increase
  shower and thunderstorm coverage across western, southern and
  some central parts of the forecast area Friday before spreading
  to most of the forecast area this weekend.
- Much of central and western New Mexico are expected to receive
  rain amounts between one quarter and one inch. However,
  localized areas of 2 to 3 inches may occur with repeated rounds
  of storms. The greatest concern for flash flooding will be on
  and downstream of the Ruidoso area burn scars.
- Some scattered showers and storms across central areas Monday
  before dry and tranquil fall weather returns areawide to close
  out September and begin October.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms will persist across far western NM
early this morning. These storms will lose intensity as they shift
eastward and should generally diminish prior to sunrise.
Meanwhile, the upper level low over CA is shifting southward early
this morning and by late today should be over SoCal. Meanwhile,
moisture ahead of the low will continue to advect into NM. The 00Z ABQ
sounding boasted only a 0.36" PWAT, but by late today, PWAT`s should
be near 0.80". Thus, with increasing moisture and lift, showers
and thunderstorms will increase across western NM today. Despite
abundant cloud cover, models suggest there will be enough
instability for isolated areas of heavy rainfall. This will be
especially realized where cloud breaks allow for enough insolation
to locally destabilize the area further. A secondary area of
storms is expected over or just east of the South Central
Mountains on the nose of the upper level jet. Most CAMs suggest
the bulk of the precipitation will be east of the burn scars
around Ruidoso so no Flash Flood Watch will be issued. Storms will
expand over the lower Rio Grande Valley this evening, but will
struggle to make it into ABQ Metro. Between 0.10" and 0.50" of
rainfall will be common, but there is a low chance that isolated
areas will see around an inch. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset, though a vort max
may keep showers going overnight in an arc from northwest to south
central NM.
As discussed yesterday, cloud debris from these storms (and
showers themselves) will linger through the overnight hours. This
could potentially limit how much instability will develop for
Saturday afternoon`s round of storms as well as drop temperatures
on the order of 5 degrees from today. The upper level low over
SoCal will move little through Saturday so much of the forcing for
storms will come from a 70kt upper level jet and associated dry
slot pushing in from the southwest as well as orographic lift.
Moisture will have also continued to spread eastward, so much of
the forecast area will have potential for storms. Latest
indications that areas along the Rio Grande Valley and Central
Mountain Chain will be favored for wetting precipitation. Models
shows a little bit better mid level lapse rates than they were
showing yesterday, so there is still potential for isolated heavy
rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch. However, the bulk of the
area should see amounts between 0.25" and 0.75" -- including the
ABQ Metro mainly Saturday evening. Unfortunately, CAMs are in
pretty good agreement that the Ruidoso area will see these
amounts, if not closer to 1", so it`s likely a Flash Flood Watch
will be needed for burn scar flash flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Another weak vorticity maxima looks to move up into south central
NM Saturday evening before shifting northeastward overnight. This
feature should keep showers and storms going much of the
overnight period and may result in additional flooding across the
Ruidoso burn scars.
With storms lingering through the overnight hours and abundant
cloud cover and cooler temperatures expected Sunday, the concern
regarding available instability is the greatest on Sunday.
However, with the upper low kicking out into the Four Corners,
though weakening into an open trough, widespread ascent should
overcome the weaker instability, allowing for numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop. The big question will be how high can
rainfall rates really get. Even though models suggest there will
be many storms, rainfall amounts look to be modest, with mean
rainfall amounts less than a third of an inch across all areas and
90th percentile rainfall amounts up to 1 inch. Storm motions will
also be faster on Sunday than on previous days. The greatest
concern will continue to be around Ruidoso, especially if flooding
occurs on Saturday.
The trough axis will continue to cross NM Sunday night and Monday
before exiting the state Monday evening. Much drier air will push
into the state behind the trough axis, thus storm chances and
precipitation amounts on Monday will dwindle considerably. Drier
air will continue to filter into NM Tuesday through Thursday,
kiboshing shower and thunderstorm chances. Looks like the end of
the monsoon is near.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast over
west central and southwest parts of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity as far
east as a line from Farmington to Roswell. Late tonight into
Saturday morning, models depict a broad area of rain showers and
isolated embedded thunderstorms progressing northward over the
northwest plateau, northwest mountains, and Albuquerque area;
and, potentially extending southeast of there toward Roswell.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread to include the remainder of
the forecast area Saturday afternoon, except the far northeast
corner of the state. A few thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours will be capable of producing wet microbursts with
localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Late tonight
until mid morning Saturday, there is a roughly 50-60% chance that
pockets of MVFR ceilings will develop at lower elevations mainly
west of the continental divide. This would result in occasional
mountain slope and mountain top obscurations there.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Moisture will be on the uptrend through the weekend with numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected. Wetting rain should benefit
many areas across western and central NM. Drier air begins to
filter into NM on Monday, which will limit thunderstorm chances.
Drier air continues to filter into the area Tuesday through
Thursday, and it will be hard to get much, if any, storms to
develop through the period. Instead, daytime RH values should
plummet below 20% across several areas, especially by Wed/Thu.
High temperatures will be below seasonal normals this weekend
thanks to the precipitation and cloud cover, but temperatures will
rebound mid week with plenty of sunshine.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  53  76  54 /  20  10  50  60
Dulce...........................  76  39  76  44 /  10   5  50  70
Cuba............................  74  48  72  47 /  30  20  70  70
Gallup..........................  73  47  73  45 /  70  50  60  50
El Morro........................  71  47  70  46 /  80  50  60  60
Grants..........................  74  47  74  46 /  80  50  70  70
Quemado.........................  72  46  73  45 /  70  60  40  50
Magdalena.......................  75  52  71  51 /  70  40  60  70
Datil...........................  72  46  70  46 /  70  60  60  60
Reserve.........................  77  47  75  46 /  70  70  30  50
Glenwood........................  79  51  78  51 /  60  70  40  50
Chama...........................  71  42  69  42 /  10   5  40  60
Los Alamos......................  74  53  69  51 /  10  10  60  60
Pecos...........................  76  50  72  48 /  10   5  60  70
Cerro/Questa....................  74  46  73  46 /   5   0  30  40
Red River.......................  65  40  63  39 /   5   0  30  40
Angel Fire......................  70  33  67  34 /   5   0  30  40
Taos............................  77  43  75  46 /   5   0  30  40
Mora............................  73  46  69  44 /   5   0  50  50
Espanola........................  81  49  76  51 /   5   5  50  60
Santa Fe........................  76  53  72  52 /  10  10  50  70
Santa Fe Airport................  79  50  75  50 /  10  10  50  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  61  76  58 /  20  20  60  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  58  78  56 /  20  20  50  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  57  80  56 /  20  20  50  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  59  78  57 /  20  20  50  70
Belen...........................  84  56  80  54 /  20  30  50  70
Bernalillo......................  84  57  79  55 /  20  20  50  70
Bosque Farms....................  84  55  79  53 /  20  20  50  70
Corrales........................  84  58  80  56 /  20  20  50  70
Los Lunas.......................  84  56  79  54 /  20  20  50  70
Placitas........................  80  56  74  54 /  20  20  50  70
Rio Rancho......................  83  58  78  56 /  20  20  50  70
Socorro.........................  85  58  81  57 /  40  40  60  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  52  70  49 /  30  20  60  80
Tijeras.........................  77  54  72  51 /  30  20  60  80
Edgewood........................  79  50  72  49 /  20  20  60  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  49  74  48 /  20  10  60  70
Clines Corners..................  75  51  70  49 /  20  10  60  70
Mountainair.....................  78  51  72  49 /  30  20  60  70
Gran Quivira....................  77  51  72  49 /  30  20  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  80  56  74  54 /  30  20  60  70
Ruidoso.........................  73  52  67  50 /  30  30  70  80
Capulin.........................  76  47  72  48 /   0   0  20  20
Raton...........................  79  46  75  48 /   0   0  20  20
Springer........................  81  47  78  50 /   0   0  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  77  48  73  47 /   5   0  40  60
Clayton.........................  82  53  80  55 /   0   0  10   5
Roy.............................  80  50  77  52 /   5   0  20  40
Conchas.........................  87  54  83  57 /   5   0  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  84  55  78  54 /  10   5  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  85  54  82  54 /   0   0  20  30
Clovis..........................  87  58  83  58 /   0   0  20  30
Portales........................  88  59  84  58 /   0   0  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  85  58  82  57 /   5   0  30  50
Roswell.........................  88  61  83  59 /  20  10  40  50
Picacho.........................  83  56  79  54 /  40  20  60  60
Elk.............................  80  53  75  51 /  30  20  70  60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion