Cordova, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

047
FXUS62 KRAH 220800
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the Middle Atlantic
today, then drift to near Bermuda through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...
NWP guidance indicate a sub-tropical shortwave perturbation, now
evident in GOES-E WV data over along the FL Atlantic coast, will
weaken while lifting newd along and just off the coast of the
Carolinas through this afternoon, during which time its cirrostratus
shield will bulge nwd across mainly the ern half of NC. A more
substantial shortwave perturbation now pivoting across the nern Gulf
will reach the FL Big Bend later this morning, then turn newd and
lift through the ern Carolinas through tonight and exit the srn
Middle Atlantic coast around 12Z Tue. Related to the approach of
this feature, a separate area of cirrostratus is forecast to blossom
across the ern Carolinas later this afternoon through early tonight.
Weak lapse rates and deep dryness characterized by below average PWs
evident in 00Z RAOBs across the South Atlantic coast, and stability,
suggest the aforementioned high-level moisture will be the extent of
sensible weather impacts for cntl NC.
At the surface, the center of a surface ridge, evident in surface
observational data from the Middle Atlantic coast swwd across the
cntl Carolinas and GA this morning, will drift slowly sewd and reach
ern NC by this evening, where it will remain through early Tue.
Light nely flow over cntl NC early today will gradually veer to
ssely in the Piedmont and ely in the Coastal Plain through this
evening.
While the veering, return flow regime across the Piedmont may allow
temperatures to warm a degree to three relative to Sunday, provided
areas of low morning overcast lift and disperse as expected, high
temperatures and distribution should otherwise be generally
persistence, as will overnight lows amid occasional light sely
steering between calm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Monday...
The models generally agree that a shortwave trough over the OH
Valley at the start of the period, likely related to a series of
shortwave perturbations evident in GOES-E WV stretching this morning
from MO to ern WY, will progress across the cntl and srn
Appalachians Tue afternoon and srn Middle Atlantic Tue evening. It
may be preceded or accompanied by a few smaller, convectively-
amplified perturbations (MCVs) from upstream convection, in wswly
flow that will exist from the TN Valley to the srn Middle Atlantic.
At the surface, a ridge initially over ern NC will drift offshore
while weakening, with associated return sly to swly flow directed
across cntl NC and into an Appalachian-lee trough forecast to
develop across the wrn Piedmont of VA and the Carolinas.
The aforementioned return flow regime should cause temperatures to
warm 2-4 F over the previous period and range from low-mid 80s north
to upr 80s to near 90 F south on Tue and centered in the mid 60s Tue
night. When combined with generally lwr 60s surface dewpoints, weak
instability will probably develop with peak afternoon heating,
maximized over the Piedmont and uncapped and accompanied by a
spatial maximum of 700 mb RH near and just above the top of the
mixed/boundary layer. Given that those moisture and instability
maxima will coincide with a surface convergence maximum along the
lee/Piedmont trough, and there will likely be some degree of
influence/lift provided by the shortwave trough and/or smaller MCVs,
a slight chance of showers/storms are warranted Tue afternoon-early
evening over the nw Piedmont. Although NBM PoPs are below 10%, CAMs
(all but the NAM Nest), support the idea of at least isolated
convection there. The models suggest areas of stratus and fog should
be confined to the far ern Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont Wed
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Monday...
Wednesday: Flow will turn swly over central NC Wednesday as a strong
upper trough begins to deepen and dig into the central US. The
deepest anomalous moisture associated with this system should
largely remain to our west and north. However, a few mid-level
perturbations may generate afternoon and evening showers with best
chances across our northwest areas. Otherwise, expect above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the north to lower 90s
across the NC/SC border.
Thursday through Monday: While there remains disagreement wrt to the
overall evolution of the upper trough through early next week, the
general consensus is that central NC will remain in a warm, moist
sly flow regime during much of this period.  Upper forcing
associated with the upper trough should generate periods of showers
and storms with the heaviest rain most likely falling late Thursday
through Friday night. Given the likely n-s oriented storm motion,
good training potential may lead to isolated flash flooding during
this period. Otherwise, increasing shear Thursday and more-so on
Friday could also promote a few strong to severe storms.
Beyond Friday, there is disagreement amongst deterministic and
ensembles wrt the evolution of the upper trough/low.  The GFS
develops a cutoff low that lingers in the Deep South for a while
before moving over central NC and continuing rain chances over
central NC through early next week.  Alternatively, the Euro ejects
the upper trough offshore ending rain chances by early Sunday.
Ensembles (including the mean GEFS) are more in line with the Euro,
generally ushering in drier air by Sunday. Regardless, expect wet,
unsettled weather to likely extend into Saturday at the least.
Highs during this period should largely remain in lower to mid 80s
(perhaps a bit higher on Thursday).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
Moist, nely flow will favor the redevelopment of mostly LIFR
ceilings and LIFR-MVFR visibility restrictions in mist/fog this
morning between 08-11Z, followed by their dispersion to VFR between
13-15Z.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again Tue-Thu
mornings, mainly at and east of RWI and FAY. Showers/storms are
expected to reach INT/GSO with isolated coverage late Tue afternoon-
evening and with scattered coverage Wed afternoon-night. Their
probability of occurrence will increase and overspread all of cntl
NC Thu, with associated flight restrictions, then linger into the
upcoming weekend, as a slow-moving trough aloft and surface cold
front approach our region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NTL
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion