Cypress, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS62 KTAE 251015
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
615 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The highly anticipated rainfall arrives today thanks to an
approaching cold front moving across the MS Valley. The best rain
chances are in the western to NW half of the Tri-State area.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for semi-
organized convection capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy downpours. An isolated damaging gust or two would not
be surprising.
Prior to convective onset, patchy fog is slated to develop this
morning. Models focus development from the Suwannee Valley to
along/north of the I-10 corridor. Some of this activity may become
dense. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s.
For tonight into tomorrow morning, another wave of convection
spreads from SW off the Gulf to NE, targeting the FL Panhandle
coast into the Central Big Bend the most. This wet weather is
likely to affect your Friday commute to work. Low temperatures
range from upper 60s to low 70s under thick cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Beneficial rains will affect a greater portion of the Tri-State area
on Friday as the cold front responsible moves through the region.
Frontal passage occurs some time on Saturday with drier NW winds in
its wake reducing rain chances from west to east. Increased
precipitation & cloud cover yields high temperatures in the 80s. Low
temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s to around 70
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Mostly dry weather appears to take place Sunday into early next week
as upper troughing or cutoff low meanders over the region. Strong
surface high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic states fosters a NE
low-level, wedge-like-flow pattern. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the upper 80s to low 90s while overnight lows in the 60s
will be common.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Patchy early morning fog and low ceilings will result in some
sporadic MVFR to IFR conditions early this morning, then becoming
VFR by mid-morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach on
the area from west to east through the day with the highest chance
at seeing showers and thunderstorms at DHN and ECP. These will be
sporadic through the period as opposed to an all day rain at any one
terminal. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with any showers and
thunderstorms with VFR expected this afternoon outside of storms.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected early Friday
morning for ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH with MVFR to IFR ceilings also
developing across the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southwest winds prevail ahead and along of an approaching cold from
the Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast today through Saturday. Maritime convection will be capable
of locally gusty winds, higher seas, waterspouts, and frequent
lightning. Westerly winds follow frontal passage this weekend, then
turn more northeasterly next week. Favorable boating conditions are
expected away from storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A cold front crossing the MS Valley brings showers and thunderstorms
mainly NW of Tallahassee today. Some storms may be strong capable of
gusty/erratic or isolated damaging winds, frequent lighting, and
locally heavy downpours. High dispersions are forecast this
afternoon across the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend.
Axis of rainfall overspreads much of the region on Friday with
widespread wetting rains likely. Frontal passage occurs some time on
Saturday, thus keeping rain chances confined east of Tallahassee.
Prevailing southwest winds today-tomorrow turn more northwesterly
behind the front on Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Much needed rainfall is expected over the next couple days from an
arriving cold front later today. Widespread amounts ranging from
about a half inch to 1.5 inches are forecast with isolated 2+ inches
beneath the strongest thunderstorms. Portions of the FL Panhandle,
particularly around the Emerald Coast stand the best chance of
experiencing the most rain through Saturday. Given the ongoing
(flash) drought conditions areawide, flooding concerns are low.
Flash Flood Guidance suggests that 4-6 inches of rain within 6 hrs
would be needed. That said, local runoff issues are possible in
urban, low-lying, or poor-drainage spots. We dry out again later
this weekend into next week.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  72  85  69 /  30  60  60  50
Panama City   88  73  85  70 /  50  90  70  30
Dothan        90  69  84  65 /  70  70  50  30
Albany        92  71  84  67 /  50  60  50  50
Valdosta      93  72  88  69 /  20  20  50  50
Cross City    92  73  89  71 /  20  20  50  60
Apalachicola  87  73  84  71 /  30  70  80  50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion