Cyrus, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS63 KMPX 011943
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
243 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  record highs possible Thursday through Saturday.
- Very windy conditions becoming more likely Saturday and
  Sunday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible each day.
- Seasonable weather expected behind the front to start next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The pattern remains largely the same as 12 hours ago, with MN
and WI being situated between a blocking high to the east a
deep low off the coast of British Colombia. Ridging will
continue to expand over the central CONUS, allowing parts of the
Upper MS Valley to build in potentially record-setting heat to
end the week. Another big part of the story will be the strong
winds associated with the low that will eventually make its way
through the Midwest. Let`s break it down.
We`ve maintained a small area of slight chance (15-20%) PoPs
overnight as the boundary currently over the Dakotas and
Nebraska moves east. Expect isolated showers with a few
lightning strikes at most, otherwise mainly just sprinkles are
likely.
Temperatures will continue their gradual climb tomorrow,
especially with cloud cover expected to be more limited.
Friday and Saturday look to be the warmest days this week, with
widespread Moderate heat risk starting Friday and Major heat
risk developing for portions of east-central MN on Saturday. The
main driver to the heat risk with be the anomalously warm
temps, reaching widespread mid-upper 80s and low 90s common
across western MN each day. A saving grace will be the
relatively drier air in place -- when we had a similar stretch
of warm weather two years ago in early October, the dewpoints
were roughly 8-12 degrees higher. Other limiting factors will be
partial cloud cover each day and very breezy winds. The latest
EPs and GEFs produce 30 to 40 mph gusts Saturday/Sunday, with
some members of the Euro even eclipsing 50 mph on Sunday just
ahead and along the frontal passage. All that said, we are
looking at a very hot stretch of weather for this time of year,
and combined with the winds it will feel like a blast furnace at
times. The other thing to keep in mind will be the little
relief we receive overnight with Saturday and Sunday morning
lows forecasted to only reach the low 70s. Certainly a case
where AC is preferred over open windows overnight for folks most
likely.
As the front moves through Sunday afternoon/evening, it
continues to trend in the direction of being mostly dry for
our area. For those that do receive rain, the QPF is relatively
light. Temperatures and dewpoints will come crashing down to
seasonable conditions to start next week. So if you are a summer
weather fan, enjoy it while you can this week!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR throughout the TAF period, with SCT to BKN cirrus clouds.
There could be some accas clouds overnight across western
Minnesota but cigs still aoa FL120. There could be isolated
showers with these, but more likely virga given a dry layer near
and above the surface. Winds out of the SE with gusts this
afternoon. We will lose gusts overnight before winds increase
Thursday morning and turn to a more southerly direction.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15G25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G30kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion