227 FXUS64 KMEG 131130 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through the middle of next week.
- Temperatures will range from the lower to upper 90s for the next several days.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to lack of precipitation and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through at least next week.
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.DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
00Z upper air analysis features an Omega Block located from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with upper-level troughs along both the East and West Coast of the United States. Mostly clear skies are prevailing across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.
The aforementioned Omega Block is expected to persist across the Lower Mississippi Valley into next week with temperatures remaining well above normal for mid-September with highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. Mainly dry weather is expected to prevail through the middle of next week with shower or thunderstorm coverage remaining too minimal to mention at this time.
Long-range ensembles indicate the upper-level ridge may weaken towards the end of next week bringing a very slight increase in rain chances north of I-40. However, any appreciable rain to alleviate the drought conditions is not expected over the next week.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Upper level high pressure will result in VFR conditions and light and variable winds over the next 30 hours.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Elevated wildland fire danger will continue with mainly hot and dry conditions persisting across the area into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will average around 30 percent. However, 20 foot winds are expected to remain light and variable.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion