Dayton, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS63 KMPX 041913
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
213 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through Sunday, with record
  highs and lows possible through Sunday.
- Windy conditions expected today through Sunday with gusts of 35 to
  45 mph.
- Cooler temperatures arrive Monday with patchy frost possible
  Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Current observations reveal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s across the region. This is well in line with mixing down 925 mb
temps of 25-27C and given the placement of the thermal ridge.
Scattered deck of mid-hi level clouds will move through before we
clear out overnight. An impressive 45+ kt low level jet streak set
up overhead, supporting wind gust up to 40 mph this afternoon. There
could be a few sites that observe sporadic gusts of 40+ mph
possible. Temperatures should level off by late afternoon, but sites
will be slow to cool down with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
This is the part where I remind everyone our average high
temperatures are supposed to be in the mid 60s for early October.
A potent surface low will track from central SD to northwest MN
Saturday night. A trailing surface cold front will move into western
MN late Sunday morning and the I-35 corridor by early evening. The
thermal ridge should support another day of strong heating ahead of
the cold front. High temperatures should peak in the low to mid 80s
prior to the wind shift. It will not be as hot, but the wind gusts
will continue Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds will shift to
westerly and west-northwesterly post frontal passage. This morning`s
CAM runs are more optimistic for isolated showers and storms to
develop along the front from mid afternoon onward, despite the dry
conditions ahead of the sfc boundary. HRRR forecast soundings do
show modest surface-based instability that should be enough to
support showers and a few rumbles of thunder. It remains to be seen
how much coverage will be associated with these showers, but any
precipitation amounts will remain light.
For next week, cooler and drier air will arrive behind the front as
a surface high pressure builds into the region early next week. The
high will be centered overhead Tuesday into Wednesday and will
support clear skies & lows in the 30s and 40s Monday & Tuesday
night. This could lead to patchy frost outside of the Twin Cities
metro. The high will shift east later next week and southerly flow
will return returns across the Plains and Upper Midwest. This should
lead to another wave of above normal temperatures. The latest Euro
would support high temperatures in the 80s next weekend. This should
not come as a surprise given frequency of blocking tied to the
current upper air pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A few passing high clouds today will increase Sunday. Gusty
south winds to around 30 kts are expected through much of the
period, although the gusts will become more sporadic tonight.
Developing low level jet of 55-60 kts will create some wind
shear tonight. A cold front approaching from the west late in
the period will shift winds more southwest, then northwest
following its passage. A few storms may develop along the
front, mostly after the current forecast period.
KMSP...No additional concerns. Left a PROB30 out for Sunday
afternoon for now, but trends have been for a greater coverage
of storms. Will reassess for the next issuance.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 15-20G30-35kts bcmg NW 10-15
kts late.
MON-TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Record lows/highs for this weekend:
SAT      SUN
MSP     68/89    63/88
STC     64/88    58/89
EAU     67/86    64/84
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff
CLIMATE...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion