Deberrie, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

954
FXUS64 KLZK 050645
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
145 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
-Warm to hot temperatures will continue today for the southeastern
 two-thirds of the state with high temperatures reaching the
 upper 80s to upper 90s ahead and along a cold front. Across
 northwestern and north-central Arkansas, high temperatures will
 only reach to mid 70s to mid 80s as these locations begin to feel
 cooler temperatures behind the cold front.
-Significant pattern change is expected during the day on Friday
 into early Saturday as a cold front moves across the state.
-Rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday
 afternoon/evening through Saturday evening along and behind the
 cold front.
-A much cooler airmass behind the front will usher in below-normal
 temperatures beginning Friday afternoon and persist into early
 next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
FRIDAY (Today) THRU SATURDAY:
Currently, Arkansas is under the influence of warm and
southeasterly flow which is situated on the upper lvl western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. It is this feature which has
resulted in slightly warmer than average temperatures compared to
early September normals. However, considerable changes will begin
Friday morning into Saturday as an upper lvl trof is digging over
the Central and Eastern regions of the CONUS.
This upper lvl feature will coerce a sfc cold front to push across
Arkansas beginning Friday morning (this morning) across northwestern
Arkansas and track south-southeastward across the state, eventually
tracking into Louisiana paralleling the I-20 corridor by Saturday
morning.
Guidance consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are in cohesion with
regards to positioning of this feature. The only small deviations
are the timing and amount of rain and storm development associated
with the movement of this front as it track across the Natural
State. The ECMWF continues to be a slightly quicker and drier
solution. However, guidance across the board is trending with a
quicker moving cold front and rain and storm activity clearing out
of central Arkansas by Saturday afternoon.
Likewise, now in the range of short-term model guidance, are on
board with these CAMS solutions such as the RAP and HRRR moving all
rain and storm activity into southern Arkansas by Saturday
afternoon.
Expect rain and thunderstorm activity to begin impacting northern
Arkansas later Friday morning into midday on Friday, central
Arkansas by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, and southern
Arkansas into Friday evening and Friday night. The progression of
this cold front is slow and precipitation will be present behind
this anafront. Rain and isolated storm activity will taper off on
Saturday from north to south across the state throughout the day.
High temperatures today will be dependent on the placement of the
cold front and seasonable temperatures to temperatures a few degrees
above average can be anticipated across much of central and southern
Arkansas; whereas, northern Arkansas will feel high temperatures
around 10 degrees below normal as the cold front will have already
tracked through part of northern Arkansas by this afternoon.
On Saturday, with the FROPA complete across Arkansas, expect
temperatures with respect to morning lows and afternoon highs
roughly 10 degrees below average compared to normals for this time
of the year.
SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY:
Sfc high pressure will settle back in behind the cold front and lead
to a Sunday and Monday with temperatures slightly below normal with
fair and dry weather conditions will persist through the remainder
of the forecast period. The most noted difference over this period
will be the gradual increase of temperatures back to seasonal
averages or near normal for early to transitioning into mid
September by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the majority of the forecast period from
early Friday morning through early Saturday morning across all
terminals. The only exception will be vicinity showers and
thunderstorms that will be present across all sites as a cold front
moves across the state from north to south throughout the day on
Friday which may drop VSBY in the strongest of storms. A pronounced
surface wind shift will be noted during the day on Friday as the
cold front moves across the state which will be most noted across
northern and central terminals during the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  58  80  53 /  20  60  20   0
Camden AR         94  64  79  59 /  10  50  50  10
Harrison AR       80  54  77  52 /  20  60  10   0
Hot Springs AR    91  62  79  59 /  10  60  40  10
Little Rock   AR  91  62  77  59 /  10  50  20   0
Monticello AR     96  66  79  61 /  10  50  40   0
Mount Ida AR      90  62  78  59 /  10  60  30  10
Mountain Home AR  83  55  80  52 /  20  60  10   0
Newport AR        92  60  79  53 /  20  50  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  63  78  58 /  10  50  20   0
Russellville AR   91  62  81  58 /  20  50  20   0
Searcy AR         92  61  79  56 /  20  50  20   0
Stuttgart AR      94  62  79  58 /  10  50  20   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion