Derby, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS63 KICT 071122
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool and dry for today and tonight.
- A few storms possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
- Warm-up back to normal expected for the latter half of the
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A surface high currently dominates the central part of the country.
Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and mild temperatures will
continue in the wake of the potent frontal boundary from a
couple days ago. While our weather is still primarily influenced
by the deep upper trough across the Great Lakes Region, the
upper ridge to our west is beginning to build and shift east.
For this afternoon, this means the gradual warming trend will
get underway with highs across the area reaching into the upper
70s. With dewpoints remaining in the 50s, overnight lows tonight
will still manage to dip down into the middle to upper 50s.
For Monday and Monday night, we have a relatively decent shot at
seeing some additional showers and thunderstorms develop and move
east across the state as a upper level shortwave traverses the
Central Plains. We`re currently not anticipating severe weather with
this activity as the better instability and shear will be located
across western and central Kansas while the better forcing from the
shortwave will be situated over eastern Kansas. Despite this, the
1500-200 J/kg of CAPE and shear upwards of 40 kts will still be able
to sustain a few run of the mill thunderstorms. It looks like this
activity will develop across central Kansas during the afternoon
hours and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight.
There`s still a little bit of time for all the pieces of the puzzle
to come together before we pinpoint exact timing and location of
highest impacts, but will maintain 30-40 POPs for much of the area
with highest chances across northern portions of the forecast area.
As we move through the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the gradual warming
trend with highs in the lower 80s for Tuesday and temperatures
nearing normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with
highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will stabilize in
the 60s through the end of the period. With the upper ridge parking
over the Central and Southern Plains by Wednesday, it will
effectively shut down precip chances for the rest of the forecast
time frame. This will lead to pleasantly warm and dry weather for
the end of the week and weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast
period. Light southerly winds this morning will increase to
between 10-15 knots this afternoon. Central Kansas locations
could see some gusts to 20 knots this afternoon then winds will
diminish some during the overnight period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion