Divot Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS64 KEWX 062330
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daytime temperatures more like the first week of September than
  the first week of October.
- 15% to 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
  Wednesday afternoons.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
The weak low pressure system that was previously south of Louisiana
trended well east over the lower Mississippi Valley overnight,
tempering low-level moisture advection in our area. However,
southeasterly flow accompanying the evening`s seabreeze should still
be on the more moist side and could spark a few brief showers over
the Coastal Plains as they encounter a localized but strongly capped
650 to 700 hPa temperature deficit.
Continued easterly to southeasterly flow will bring slightly more
humid air into the area Tuesday. This will make tonight and Tuesday
morning a little more mild than mornings past with the Rio Grande,
Coastal Plains, and urbanized I-35 corridor likely remaining above
70. Upper-level ridge holding over the area will continue to limit
shower activity Tuesday, but the increased moisture across South-
Central Texas will support a bit more cloud cover and better but
still low (15 to 20 percent) chances for isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two during the day. Better chances are
weighted slightly towards the northern half of the CWA north of
Highway 90. Highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast Tuesday for
most of the South Central Texas. Tuesday night will be similar to
Monday night with lows again in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A weak frontal boundary is expected to move into at least the
northern part of our CWA sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Without much of a signature aloft, frontogenesis fields look weak
and there will likely not be much of a change in temperatures
associated with the front aside from temporarily shaving off daytime
temperatures by a degree or two. Frontal convergence with moist Gulf
flow continuing should still offer another opportunity for a low (15
to 20 percent) chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms across
mainly the northern half of the CWA for Wednesday.
The front fizzles out Thursday as upper-level ridging becomes better
centered over our area and surface high pressure wedges in behind
the front, leading to a drying trend that continues into the weekend
without rain chances. Sunny skies and ridging will maintain above
average highs in the low to mid 90s, though the drier post-frontal
conditions will allow overnight temperatures to cool back into the
60s late in the week and over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Isolated SHRA activity ongoing east of I-35 is forecast to
dissipate after sunset. VFR conditions through the evening, with
broken stratus developing overnight and early Tuesday morning
across portions of the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor near SAT, and
west through portions of the western Hill Country and Rio Grande.
A mix of MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast with this stratus,
however patchy LIFR conditions are forecast across the Coastal
Plains, southeast of SSF. Conditions should become VFR again
around 15Z. Isolated SHRA activity is forecast Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  92  71  92 /  10  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  93  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            68  88  67  86 /  10  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  93  72  90 /   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  92  70  90 /  10  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  93  70  90 /  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  92  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion