Dockweiler, California Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS66 KLOX 301117
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/1200 AM.
A series of weak disturbances will keep a persistent night through
morning low clouds pattern going across the coasts and lower vlys
through the week. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear. Afternoon
high temperatures will continue to run below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...30/255 AM.
A weak trof is just exiting the area. It did not bring any rain to
the area but it did lift the marine layer to 4000 plus feet. A
large strata-cu layer covers a large portion of the forecast area
including the interior and lower mtn elevations. Some cool air and
mixing coming in behind the front will allow for decent clearing
this afternoon. Max temps will rise 3 to 6 degrees across SLO and
most of SBA county today as that area will see much more sunshine
that it did ydy. LA/VTA counties as well as the SBA south coast
will cool due to the deeper marine layer and lingering strata-cu
layer. Max temps everywhere will end up 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.
NW winds behind the trof will generate some gusty sundowner winds
this evening while there will be some isolated advisory level
gusts they will not be widespread enough for an advisory.
Fairly flat flow with an embedded dying trof will move over the
area on Wednesday. It will not bring too much weather. Look for
the marine layer will not be as deep as today but many vlys will
still see some morning low clouds. Slightly higher hgts and more
sunshine will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most areas. Max
temps will remain blo normal.
A little less morning low clouds on tap for Thursday as the marine
layer continues to shrink and offshore flow across srn SBA county
combine to limit low clouds to the VTA/LA csts as well as the
Central Coast/Santa Ynez Vly. Less marine layer, more sunshine and
weaker onshore flow will all contribute to a 2 to 4 degree warming
trend. This will bring max temps up to within 1 to 3 degrees of
normal but still below.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...30/1210 AM.
There is good agreement within the mdls and the ensembles about
the general pattern for the long term. It is a rather unusual one
for this time of the year. On Friday an upper low will swing
through the nrn portion of the state. In its wake, a long wave pos
tilt trof will drape over the state. Then on Monday a new upper
low will pinch off at the base of the trof and swing through the
center of the state.
The forecast remains dry as the preponderance of mdl solutions do
not have enough moisture to produce rain. Still the chc of rain is
not zero on Friday and Monday and is currently at 10 percent. If
either of the upper lows slows down over the waters or takes a
more westward track the chc of rain would be greater. The Central
Coast would likely be the area that would have a higher chc of
rain in these situations.
Much more confident in the night through morning coastal low cloud
pattern which will be enhanced by all of the cyclonic turning
aloft.
The onshore flow, lower than normal hgts and fairly deep marine
layer will all team up to continue below normal max temps on Fri
and Sat. The real cooling starts Sunday as hgts fall faster and by
Monday most max temps will end up 10 to 15 degrees blo normal.
Highs across the csts, vlys and even the Antelope Vly will be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1115Z.
At 0648Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 feet deep with an
inversion up to 5500 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in desert TAFs, though wind speeds may be off by
+/- 5 kt at times.
Moderate confidence in the coastal/valley TAFs due to uncertainty
in the timing and extent of low clouds. Flight category changes
could occur +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 15-30%
chance of MVFR cigs for a few hours until 18Z Tue. Any cigs that
form may bounce between categories (mostly between MVFR and VFR).
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance of cigs
as low as OVC025 few hours until 18Z Tue. No significant easterly
wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce between
OVC025-OVC035 until 18Z Tue, and timing of clearing may be off by
2 hours.
&&
.MARINE...30/401 AM.
This evening, there is moderate confidence in Small Craft
Advisory level winds occuring across the Santa Barbara Channel.
Followed by a 60% chance of SCA winds across the channel Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon/evening with a 40-50% chance of SCA level
winds Tuesday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and
evening hours.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. On Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds
across PZZ670 and a 60-70% chance across PZZ673/676. For Thursday
and Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas
across all the Outer Waters. On Saturday, the chances of SCA level
winds continuing drops to 30-50%. For the Inner Waters north of
Point Conception, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds
Wednesday afternoon and evening. For Thursday and Friday, there
is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds, followed by a 30% chance of
Saturday.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 4 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Wednesday night through Saturday, a northwest swell will
build coastal waters, with seas peaking around 10 feet for the
outer waters and 6-8 feet across the inner waters.
&&
.BEACHES...30/208 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents
and elevated surf are expected to continue for south- facing
beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as
well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coast.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-facing beaches may
see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY remains in effect for the Malibu Coast, with
surf of 4 to 7 feet again expected. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
remains in effect through Wednesday for all other south- facing
beaches along the Central Coast (4-7 feet, local sets to 8 feet),
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (3-6 feet).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight PDT tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...CMC/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...RAT/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...30
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion