Dockweiler, California Weather Forecast Discussion

489
FXUS66 KLOX 221002
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
302 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...21/906 PM.
Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected Monday.
Monsoon moisture will be increasing Monday night into Tuesday
resulting increasing shower and thunderstorm chances that will
continue into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...22/302 AM.
A 575 dam upper low is SW of LA. It is spinning a large swath of
clouds into Orange and San Diego counties with shower activity
heading into San Diego county. The showers will stay to the south
but LA county may see some mid and high clouds at times. Low
clouds cover most of the cst and extend locally into the lower
vlys. A little more sunshine and slight offshore trends will bring
3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to most areas. SLO and SBA
counties will warm to 3 or 4 degrees above normal while VTA and LA
counties will mostly be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than usual.
On Tuesday the upper low will start to swing to the north and will
bring an area of moisture and lift to the area focused mostly on
SBA county. PWs are less than last week but will still be
significant. Values over SBA county will rise from 1 inch in the
morning to about 1.5 inches in the afternoon. PWs will decrease
both to the north and east away from SBA county. A chc of rain
will develop over SBA county in the afternoon with slight chc`s
over VTA and SLO counties. A better chc will develop Tuesday
evening and the slight chc will extend all the way to LA county.
There is enough instability with this system to include a slight
chc of TSTMs along with the showers. Rainfall amounts should not
be too impressive - a tenth or two in the afternoon and then up to
a quarter inch in the evening and overnight. Again the greatest
amounts will be over SBA county. Still with PWs near 1.50 inches
cannot rule out isolated .5 inch per hour rainfall rates under
heaviest cells. Temps on Tuesday will be very dependent on how
many clouds come over the area as well as their thickness.
The upper low pulls out towards the Bay Area on Wednesday. A
20 to 30 chc of showers/TSTMs will remain mostly in the morning
and mostly across the north sections of the counties. Rainfall
amounts and rates will be less than Tuesday`s. Max temps should
cool with an increase in onshore flow and a decrease in hgts, but
there is a chc that it will be sunnier and thus warmer.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...22/221 AM.
Low confidence in the xtnd fcst. The EC and the GFS both are in
decent agreement and show the upper low wobbling around Srn CA
through at least Saturday with many solutions also showing it in
the area on Sunday. While there is some drying PWATs should remain
around .75 inches. Blended ensemble guidance does not show any
chc of rain over 12 percent, but with an upper low overhead and
some moisture the chc of afternoon mtn convection is not zero.
Have some coastal low clouds in the fcst but this is also low
confidence since the inversion may have a difficult time forming
with the upper low overhead. Also, the onshore flow is rather
weak.
With hgts not changing much and little day to day change in the
sfc gradients max temps will not change much during the period and
will remain several degrees blo normal.
&&
.AVIATION...22/0954Z.
Around 0730Z, the marine layer depth was around 800 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 1600 feet with a
temperature near 23 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals through this evening, then low-to-moderate confidence
thereafter. Slightly higher confidence exists in timing relative
to flight categories this morning.
KLAX...There is a 20 percent of VLIFR conditions, otherwise LIFR
to IFR conditions are expected through at least 17Z. VFR
conditions could delay until as late as 19Z. A return of LIFR to
IFR conditions could occur as soon as 02Z Tuesday, or as late as
06Z. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR...There is a 10-20 percent chance of LIFR conditions between
13Z and 15Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...22/239 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a chance
that winds could lighter than forecast today and this evening.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
50-70 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds by
this afternoon, highest across the northern waters. Winds and seas
will likely drop below SCA levels between early Tuesday morning
and Wednesday morning, but local NW gusts of 20-25 knots are
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a 30-50 percent
chance of SCA level winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening,
increasing to 40-60 percent on Thursday afternoon and evening. The
highest chances will be for the waters beyond 30 NM offshore.
Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon, then there is
a 30-50 percent chance of SCA levels winds Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons and evenings. The highest chances will be for the
western Santa Barbara Channel.
Moisture with a tropical disturbance to the south will move
northward late Monday and bring a chance of showers to the
coastal waters from Port San Luis to the Channel Islands. Chances
for showers spread to most of the coastal waters Tuesday into at
least Wednesday, along with the addition of a chance of
thunderstorms. Low confidence exists in the exact timing and
location of showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm that
forms will be capable of producing locally gale force winds and
rough seas, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced
visibility, and waterspouts.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM
      PDT this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion