Doctortown, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS62 KJAX 190626
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Inland Early on Friday Morning
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches. High Risk Likely This Weekend
- Hazardous Marine Conditions this Weekend & Early Next Week
- Minor Coastal / Tidal Flooding Possible This Weekend & Early Next Week
- Isolated to Widely Scattered TStorms this Weekend & Next Week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A nudge upward in rain chances today, mainly across southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley of northeast Florida, as a
surface front lingering across southeast GA this morning is
shunted to the SW through the day as high pressure strengthens
northeast of the region. Aloft, a 500 mb trough deepens across the
eastern seaboard. Continued with low rain chances of 20-30% with
precipitable water content only nearing 1.2-1.5 inches this
afternoon, which is still below the average of 1.58 inches for the
date. Isolated thunderstorms were advertised this afternoon and
early evening for locations west of Highway 301, mainly across
southeast GA, where the left exit region of the upper level jet
will bring enhanced shear/lift aloft over diurnal instability at
the surface. Main hazard in storms today, if they can even form,
will be gusty downdraft winds due to elevated DCAPE. Much of
northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia will continue to
be dry today, less a brief coastal shower.
Rainfall fades across far inland areas this, as coastal rain
chances increase tonight as NNE winds increase between an inverted
coastal trough amplifying offshore of the FL Atlantic coast and
high pressure northeast of region wedging southward across
Georgia. The pressure gradient between these two features create
`local nor`easter` impacts as we head into the weekend including
building rough, frequent rip currents, minor tidal flooding and
marine zone hazards.
High temperatures today are again expected to be above normal
inland in the lower 90s to the low/mid 80s toward the Atlantic
coast which is near normal. Tonight lows will trend near to below
normal inland in the 60s to above normal toward the Atlantic coast
with lows in the 70s as onshore flow develops. Late night and
early morning fog this morning and again tonight is most likely
across inland areas, with localized visibility < 1 mile at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Similar situation Saturday and Sunday with high pressure ridging
to the north over the Mid Atlantic and then Appalachians area
with troughing extending from the Bahamas northeastward.
During the early morning hours Saturday and Sunday a hybrid of
patchy fog and areas of low stratus are anticipated inland with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s with boundary later
moisture increasing.
The pressure gradient is a little tighter so we can expect winds
up to 15-20 mph on Saturday for coastal areas and diminished
northeast wind speeds inland. Some minimal chances for showers
and a storm on Saturday mainly near and east of the Highway 301
corridor in northeast FL and remaining largely dry for southeast
GA. A few showers possible in Saturday evening for the coastal
areas of NE FL mainly south of Ponte Vedra but otherwise dry.
For temps, highs will be near 90 well inland both days and mid to
upper 80s toward the coast. Lows 65-70 inland and around 70 to
lower 70s coast. Skies mostly clear to partly cloudy with most of
the clouds being low to mid clouds each day.
Heightened coastal hazards with building surf and high risk
current risk likely Saturday into Saturday night. Coastal/river
levels may reach about 1 to 1.3 ft above MHHW which will approach
minor flooding thresholds for many of the usual low lying trouble
areas.
Similar situation to start off Sunday with high pressure ridging
over the Appalachians area with troughing still stretching from
the Bahamas northeastward. The tightened pressure gradient
continues with another breezy day expected Sunday with northeast
winds up to 15-20 mph gusting to about 30 mph along coastal
counties and 10-15mph, G20-25mph inland. Precip chances (20-35
percent) mainly confined for the coastal areas of northeast FL on
Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Onshore breezy NELY flow pattern on Monday continues with high
pressure wedge still present, perhaps a little stronger and a
little further south into North Georgia. NE winds will remain
breezy with gusts up to 30 mph along coastal counties and 10-15mph,
G20-25mph inland. Rainfall is expected to spreading further
inland on Monday with chances rising up to 20-40 percent.
A change in the pattern does commence Tuesday as the high
pressure ridge weakens and shift towards more northeast into the
Ohio River Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday time frame,
which will help to break the brief northeasterly event and also
shift the low level flow more towards the E to ESE, bringing in
deeper layer moisture (PWATS above 2 inches, south of SR16) as
well as the return of slightly more normal diurnal convection with
scattered showers and storms. A cold front may potentially
approach the area from the northwest on Thursday or Friday that
may support a higher chance of showers and storms. Uncertain on
weather on more specific weather details late next week with
model guidance differing in regard to placement and intensity of
mid/upper level low with ECMWF much lower latitude over the Mid
South and GFS over the upper Midwest. Much lower latitude system
would allow the encroachment of a cold front into the southeast
U.S.
Temps will start near to slightly above climo for the beginning
of next week, though trending above normal with a more southerly
flow component towards the middle of next week with uncertainty
at the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Restrictions due to shallow ground fog and some low stratus were
advertised this morning at VQQ and GNV with TEMPO LIFR at both
indicated between 08-12z. Some mid level clouds will approach
from the north through the morning with a weak surface front
across south GA. This front will bring a low chance of showers and
afternoon thunderstorms to inland terminals including VQQ and
GNV, but chances are still < 20% so precipitation was excluded in
the prevailing FM groups.
Light NNW winds < 5 kts develop after 12z, then winds veer more
NE to E into the afternoon. Coastal gusts approach 20-25 kts into
the afternoon with potential MVFR cloud bases near SGJ and
possibly CRG, but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs.
Diurnally driven cumulus with bases between 3.5-4.5 ft agl are
expected with passing mid level clouds through 00z.
NE winds remain elevated at coastal terminals after 00z this
evening, with increasing clouds cumulus clouds and a low chance
of a coastal SHRA near SGJ but mainly after 06z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A surface front across south Georgia will shift south today as high
pressure builds northeast of the region. Northeast winds increase
tonight through the weekend as high pressure strengthens northeast
of the region and a coastal trough develops east of the Florida
peninsula. Winds and seas build this weekend, with Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions expected over the waters by Saturday.
The high and coastal trough weaken through mid-week next week,
relaxing the local gradient over the waters.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk continues today, with increasing
northeast winds bringing a High risk this weekend to all local
beaches. Surf heights of 2-4 ft are expected at southeast GA
beaches with 3-5 ft at northeast Florida beaches this weekend, at
this time, below high surf advisory criterion.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Minor tidal flood risk increases late Saturday as a local nor`easter
develops. ETSS and PETSS guidance indicate the peak of tidal flooding
event Sunday and Monday for the coast, while the St. Johns River
basin continues to have `reverse flow` water levels increasing
Monday into Tuesday. Peak inundation potential is generally up to
1 ft MHHW for coastal areas and 1-1.5 ft MHHW for the St Johns
basin which supports Minor tidal flooding impacts. This event is
not expected to produce as high of tidal flooding levels as the
past 2 events this month, but with minor tidal flooding expected,
a coastal flood advisory will likely be issued this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  65  90  64 /  20  20   0   0
SSI  85  69  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  89  68  88  69 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  87  72  86  74 /  10  10  20  10
GNV  92  63  92  65 /  20  20  10   0
OCF  91  68  90  69 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion