Dover Foxcroft, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

954
FXUS61 KCAR 122341
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the east through Saturday. A cold
front will approach Saturday night and cross the region on
Sunday. High pressure builds back in through the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
730pm Update...Thin cirrus (as evidenced by webcams and
satellite) continues to overspread the region from NW to SE.
There are two main questions 1) how much will the cirrus limit
the fall of temperatures and 2) if temperatures do not fall off
as expected, how much, if any fog will develop. For now the
temperature trend is holding with the forecast, so have left the
fog and frost as is. However, if temperatures across the far NW
zones stop falling off as rapidly as expected, might need to
raise lows there and cancel the frost advisory there later this
evening. Will see how things play out.
The remainder of the forecast appears solidly on track.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure will drift east later
tonight. This will result in mainly clear skies and light winds.
The combination of the light winds and mainly clear skies will
allow temperatures to fall rather quickly early this evening.
Satellite shows some patchy high level clouds moving east
through Quebec province which will move into the region this
evening. This appears to be quite patchy and thin, so despite
this we should still see good radiational cooling conditions
this evening. There is thicker cloud north of the Great Lakes
region which will not arrive until late tonight. Decided to
issue a frost advisory for northern Somerset and Northwest
Aroostook where patchy to areas of frost are likely, with lows
falling into the mid 30s in the normally colder areas. High
pressure moves east on Saturday with a return flow of somewhat
milder air expected. A weak upper disturbance will cross the
region during Saturday with partly sunny skies expected. Highs
will range from the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. A Beach
Hazard Statement has also been issued for Saturday for the
downeast coast in coordination with the coast guard. Clouds are
on the increase Saturday night in advance of an upper trough and
cold front from Quebec. Expect a chance of showers across the
north and a slight chance of showers elsewhere late. Lows will
not be as cold Saturday night and mainly in the mid to upper
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday: The upper level trof will continue to move across the
state. The surface trof will also follow the upper level trof.
The question will be how much rain will fall from the cold
front. Also, if any thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
frontal passage. As of this update, the GFS is the most
aggressive with the rain amounts, especially with the 06Z run
showing a drastic increase. If the dry air ahead of the front is
able decrease in the mid levels, then more rain should be
expected. Nevertheless, the higher rain amounts should be
concentrated along the eastern border.
Sunday night and Monday: The surface high pressure moves in,
pushing out the rest of the rain before midnight. Early cloudy
skies should keep low temps in the 40s for the region. By
Monday, expect mostly sunny skies, light NW winds, and temps in
the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high pressure is expected to staying the area through the
beginning of the week. The models are very inconsistent with the
track and timing of the next trof. Decided to stay with the NBM
with slight chance of rain, but the timing is going to be
difficult to determine this far out. Temps show a warming trend
throughout the week until the cold front moves through the
state.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals
through 6z then after 13z. from 7-13z could see MVFR or lower
conditions develop in patchy fog. For now have left things as
is, and have only in the TAF at KPQI and KHUL. With the high
clouds overspreading the region, beginning to have some doubts
if it will even be that extensive.
High confidence in light and variable to calm winds tonight.
Winds become S-SSW at 10 kt or less by mid-late morning, then
could become light and variable again as soon as early Saturday
evening.
Saturday night...VFR.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday...MVFR in rain showers. NNW winds 5-10 kts.
Sunday night-Wednesday...VFR. Light and variable winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Saturday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
this time period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-003.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/Maloit
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...TWD/Maloit/LaFlash
Marine...TWD/Maloit/LaFlash

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion