Dryfork, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

010
FXUS61 KRLX 172359
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
759 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather prevails into the weekend under high
pressure. Potential for rain returns to the forecast next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM Wednesday...
Upper-level low pressure system loses its influence over the
local region promoting mostly clear skies and calm flow tonight
into Thursday. These conditions, together with relatively warmer
river waters may combine to produce dense steam river valley
fog during overnight and early morning hours.
High pressure at the surface and aloft prevails on Thursday,
providing dry and warm weather conditions.
As of 200 PM Wednesday...
Another quiet day is underway this afternoon across our forecast
area as we remain anchored beneath high pressure. To our east, a
coastal system churning over the Delmarva region has promoted
thick cloud coverage over Maryland and Virginia, with the
western outskirts also filtering into parts of the northeast
West Virginia mountains.
Radar trends shows a batch of rain spiraling across western
Maryland down into West Virginia, with some of those showers
progged to sink down into our mountain zones through the course
of the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, high pressure
should hold strong and mitigate precipitation from venturing
west of the I-79 corridor. This will be the most excitement
found within the near term period as predominantly dry weather
overtakes the forecast by late tonight once the center of the
disturbance shifts off to the northeast. Another quiet day will
then be on tap for Thursday amid moderating temperatures for the
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...
High pressure remains anchored overhead through the course of
the forecast period, yielding dry weather and slightly above
normal temperatures. A moisture-starved backdoor cold front
sails down from the north overnight Friday into Saturday, then
settling overhead for the weekend. This boundary will serve up a
destabilizing environment as the predominating surface high
becomes nudged out of the way. The combination of increased
moisture and warming temperatures will impose possibilities for
rain to return to the forecast for the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...
The weather returns to a more active state for the end of the
weekend in response to departing high pressure and the ridge
aloft breaking down. Global models hint at a cold front sliding
through the Ohio Valley for the start of next week, which may
serve up the best chance for measurable precipitation for the
first time in the month of September. However, central guidance
has been slower and slower with its onset arrival across each
forecast cycle, so confidence remains low for how the end of the
long term period will fare.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 755 PM Wednesday...
Satellite imagery shows upper-level low pressure system rotating
over VA, as it slides east off the Atlantic coast this evening. Its
departure will reduce cloud cover to mostly clear skies tonight into
Thursday. Clear skies and near calm winds will promote radiational
cooling areawide, and associated dense fog development over
relatively warmer river water temperatures. These conditions will
allow for dense steam river valley fog to develop roughly from 08Z
through 12-13Z Thursday morning.
The NBM shows a good signal for dense fog areawide, as well as the
NAM and GFS models. However, our best guidance the GLAMP shows no
dense fog nor low stratus. Bufkit soundings suggest very dry air at
the surface. Cross-over temperatures range from the upper 40 to the
lower 50s, except at EKN which is 58F. Believe it will take strong
radiational cooling to achieve these cross over temperatures
associated with dense fog at most terminals. Climatologically, EKN
has a better chance for IFR or worse conditions under dense fog with
nearly 40 percent probability. Expect river valley fog across the
southern WV coalfields including the vicinity of CRW and PKB.
Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated for Thursday under high
pressure at the surface and aloft.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR dense fog could affect CKB, PKB and
CRW overnight tonight. IFR conditions may emerge earlier at EKN
than expected.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Some valley fog will be possible most mornings through the end
of the week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion