Dunn, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

373
FXUS64 KJAN 171513 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1013 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The early morning fog has dissipated and under strong insolation,
temperatues are warming as expected. Per the 12Z Wed JAN sounding
PWATs were still around an inch and a half. With the lower heights
overhead due to our troughing aloft from the northeast, daytime
heating of our airmass should lead to isolated showers and
thunderstorms again this afternoon. Thus, the forecast remains on
track. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Today and Tonight...
A few upward adjustments were made to the forecast regarding the
convective coverage for our entire CWA later this afternoon, as
guidance suggest slightly higher rain chances later today. The
center of the upper-level low pressure system over the Northern
Rockies and the eastern CONUS will continue to weaken today. As this
low continues to weaken, near term guidance shows shortwave trough
amplification over a good portion of our forecast area. This
combined with southwesterly moisture advection flow will help yield
more areal coverage of late afternoon/early evening scattered
showers and t-storms across our CWA. A few strong storms with wind
gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Afternoon highs will peak
into the low to mid 90s areawide.
A few lingering showers will be possible later this evening as the
upper-level sfc low tracks northward towards the Upper East Coast.
Quiet conditions will prevail over our CWA heading into the
overnight period. HREF guidance is starting to show low
probabilities (around 10-20%) of patchy fog development across our
area. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this
time, however shallow fog will be possible around dawn. Nighttime
lows will drop into the upper 60s/low 70s areawide. /CR/
Thursday through Tuesday...
Quiet conditions will prevail across most of our CWA Thursday and
Friday, with a slight chance of an isolated shower across portions
of southeast AR and a few northeast LA parishes. Rain chances will
start to increase across northern portions of our CWA through the
weekend as a positively tilted trough axis moves over the southeast
CONUS. Late afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will
continue heading into the new work week. /CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, after some patchy BR mixes out at the beginning of the
period. Isolated SHRA or TSRA possible after 18Z, but confidence
in thunder impacts too low to mention at this time. /NF/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  69  93  69 /  20  10   0   0
Meridian      93  67  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     93  69  93  68 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   94  66  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       92  68  92  67 /  20   0   0   0
Greenville    94  69  94  68 /  20   0  10   0
Greenwood     94  68  95  68 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/CR/NF

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion