826 FXUS63 KIWX 051846 AFDIWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 246 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry over the next 7 days. Only a 20% chance of showers or sprinkles north of US-6 Saturday night.
- Cool temperatures this weekend trend warmer, into the 80s, by the middle of next week.
- Dangerous swimming conditions expected for Lake Michigan beaches through Sunday.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A 992mb low is swirling over northern Ontario, its cold front now east of our area. Breezy westerly wind today subsides not only with a loss of daytime mixing but with the 45 knot 850-mb jet departing to the east as well. Tonight, clouds associated with a weak low moving through the mid-Mississippi will provide some insulation overnight helping to keep temperatures from bottoming out, but still nearly 10 degrees below normal.
Broad troughing in remains in place through the weekend with this large upper-low lingering over the eastern Great Lakes. Can`t rule out lake effect showers Saturday night or Sunday as an embedded shortwave ripples east across Lake Michigan. Duration will be brief with high pressure quickly coming in to disturb equilibrium levels. High pressure remains in place through the coming week promising dry conditions (and an increasing risk of drought). Temperatures will gradually warm back into the 80s by midweek as the western US ridge finally tracks east.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
West winds will gust 25-30 knots at times this afternoon behind a cold front. Loss of diurnal mixing and a diminished pressure gradient allows winds to quickly subside to 5-10 knots by early this evening. VFR otherwise through the period.
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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.
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DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Steinwedel
NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion