Edmonson, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

151
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Much warmer this afternoon and Monday with record breaking heat
  possible.
- An upper-level system to bring cooler and wetter conditions to
  the region Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The shortwave that brought some weather to our southeastern counties
last evening was seen translating off to the east as an upper level
ridge begins to track into the region, via water vapor imagery. This
ridge will begin to flatten this afternoon in response to a
shortwave trough digging into portions of the southern Intermountain
West. As a result, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal this
afternoon which should lead to mostly dry conditions through the
afternoon and evening. At the surface, southeasterly winds will veer
out of the southwest by daybreak as a lee side low develops across
southeastern CO. Until then, very moist low levels with dewpoints
in the lower 70s appear favorable for some patchy fog this morning
in the southeast TX Panhandle and adjacent areas. The warm
downslope component to the winds from the surface to H7 will drive
WAA into the FA, which combined with the slight increase in
thickness values will lead to slightly warmer temperatures
compared to yesterday despite height values remaining neutral.
Although only a subtle warm up is expected, temperatures will
still be unseasonably hot this afternoon with record breaking heat
possible at KCDS and KLBB with highs forecast in the 90s to lower
triple digits. As it stands, KLBB looks to have the best chance
of breaking the record (98 degrees in 1977) with a forecasted high
of 99 degrees. KCDS could see the record broken (101 degrees in
1977) although the current forecasted high is a few degrees shy of
this of 97 degrees.
By the late evening, subtle perturbations tracking through the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough will begin to track into
the region. Some hi-resolution models hint at a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing within these vort
maxes and into areas across the Caprock overnight. Although lift
will be present from these perturbations, lack of moisture will
likely limit any beneficial showers and thunderstorms. As forecast
soundings across the area show dry air throughout much of the mid-
levels down to the surface. Thus leading to a low confidence
forecast in regards to precipitation chances overnight. If a
thunderstorm or two develops, inverted-v forecast soundings suggest
there could be a few localized stronger wind gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The unseasonably hot temperatures will not continue into the long
term forecast thankfully as the upper level shortwave trough over
the Intermountain West digs into portions of the Four Corners region
before translating into the Central Plains by mid-week. As a result,
the surface low out ahead of the system will shift east, allowing
for the associated FROPA to surge southward into the Texas Panhandle
region Tuesday afternoon. Compared to recent model runs, we are
seeing much better agreement between models with the consensus
looking like the front reaching our northwestern counties by
daybreak. One thing to note, this front looks to be decently strong
which could allow for the front to be more progressive which could
lead to much cooler temperatures across much of the FA. Due to the
uncertainty in this solution will go ahead and maintain NBM "warmer"
temperatures depicting a large gradient oriented from the southwest
to northeast. With cooler highs to the west of the gradient and
warmer highs to the east of the gradient as post frontal northerly
winds advect cold air in from the north. Additionally, as this front
moves in from the north it will bring the primary source of lift for
shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, coverage in storms will also be dependent on
the evolution and timing of this FROPA. Similar to the short term,
one thing that continues to throw a wrench in widespread and
beneficial PoPs looks to be the lack of moisture present across the
region with dry west to southwesterly winds at the H7 to H5 levels.
Much of the moisture that will be at play will likely be associated
with the FROPA moving in with post frontal northerly winds brining
in CAA and potential moisture from the north.
The upper level shortwave extending from the Central Plains to the
Upper Midwest, will become positively oriented through mid-week as it
shifts east. In response, the H5 jet streak will set up over the
northern Texas Panhandle with the FA within the right entrance
region of the jet. Depending on the amount of moisture return
present across the region, supportive jet dynamics will allow for
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Although
the precipitation forecast is a bit wishy washy, the good news is
that temperatures will be cooler compared to the last several days
in the 70s and 80s through Thursday. By Friday, an upper level ridge
over the Desert Southwest will shifts east as an upper level
shortwave trough off the California coast moves inland. Thus leasing
to increased thickness and height values and the return of warm and
dry conditions Friday. This trough is expected to develop into a
cutoff low through the weekend with deterministic guidance, as
expected, a bit all over the place with the placement of this
system. Although ensemble guidance does hint at this system being
our next chance of seeing beneficial rainfall through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A bank of LIFR ceilings and some dense fog from PVW-CDS is slowly
eroding along its western edge as drier SW winds develop. PVW
should resume VFR levels around 14Z with CDS an hour or so later.
After sunset there is potential for virga with gusty/erratic
winds reaching LBB and PVW, but this is too distant and uncertain
for further discussion.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion