El Mirage, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

949
FXUS65 KPSR 061211
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
511 AM MST Sat Sep 6 2025
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today will bring lingering chances for isolated showers and
  maybe a few weak thunderstorms before rain chances generally end
  starting Sunday.
- Slightly below normal temperatures this weekend will briefly
  warm back into the normal range early next week before dropping
  off again later next week.
- Localized Moderate Heat Risk is expected mainly across the
  south-central Arizona lower deserts during the first half of
  next week with highs as warm as 104 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Drier air continues to work into the region from the west and
northwest as a large Pacific low well west of the Pacific
Northwest directs the dry mid level flow into Arizona. Despite the
drying aloft, the lower levels (below 10K feet) are still quite
moist with mixing ratios staying around 12 g/kg and surface dew
points in the 60s. This moisture is still allowing for some
elevated instability which will persist through at least this
afternoon with an outside chance (10%) of a shower or weak storm
this morning. Ample daytime heating today is expected to bring
further convective potential this afternoon focused over higher
terrain areas, but increasing subsidence aloft will act to limit
the scope and intensity of any potential activity.
Going into Sunday, the Pacific low is forecast to deepen,
amplifying the ridging over Arizona leading to further drying and
essentially ending rain chances across the entire area. We can`t
rule out a few stray high terrain showers Sunday afternoon, but
little if any rainfall is expected. Temperatures this weekend will
begin to warm as we see more sunshine, but the lingering boundary
layer moisture and slowly rising heights aloft will keep the
warming trend fairly muted. Forecast highs show readings from the
mid to upper 90s in the Phoenix area today and near 100 degrees
across the lower deserts of southeast California and southwest
Arizona. Sunday should then bring highs in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees in the Phoenix area to around 100 degrees out
west.
&&
.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
The main driver of our weather early next week will be the
subtropical high centered just to our south, but the Pacific
trough off the West Coast will continue to bring westerly dry
flow into our region. H5 heights are forecast to peak early on
Monday at 592-594dm before gradually lowering through the middle
part of the week as the Pacific trough shifts closer to our
region. The higher heights and thicknesses should boost daytime
highs on Monday and Tuesday with highs anywhere from 100-105
degrees across the lower deserts. Overnight lows will also stay
quite elevated, contributing to localized Moderate HeatRisk
focused across the south-central Arizona lower deserts.
Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement bringing the Pacific
low center into northern California next Tuesday, displacing the
ridge that was over our region well to our southeast. H5 heights
are likely to fall to between 584-588dm by Wednesday potentially
staying in that range for a couple days late next week as the
trough likely stalls out over Nevada before lifting to the
northeast. This most likely scenario would continue to dry out the
boundary layer with surface dew points dropping into the 30s in
southeast California to the 40s in Arizona. Rain chances will stay
near zero through at least the first half of next week with only
a few members showing any slight rain chances at some point later
next week. Temperatures will also react to the incoming trough
with highs falling back into mid to upper 90s by around Wednesday
or Thursday and overnight lows falling below 80 degrees areawide.
It would not be surprising to see some low temperatures in the 60s
across rural lower deserts and into the 50s over higher terrain
areas. Lows within the Phoenix metro may eventually drop into the
low to mid 70s at some point later next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1211Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds are expected to maintain a westerly component at KPHX this
morning, while the other terminals will see west winds develop
before noon today. An isolated shower/brief storm cannot be ruled
out this morning in the Phoenix area, but confidence it too low
for inclusion in the TAF. Should a storm develop in the vicinity
of a terminal, brief erratic wind gusts under 30 kts, lightning,
and a brief downpour will be the main impacts. Otherwise, showers
and storms today are expected to stay north and east of the area.
FEW to SCT cumulus around 6-8K ft AGL are expected through most of
the TAF period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF
period. KIPL will maintain a SE wind and KBLH will remain out of
the S. Wind speeds will be around 5-10 kts through sunrise and
then increase up to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts the rest
of the day. Skies will be mostly clear during the morning and
overnight hours, with FEW to SCT cumulus and high clouds in the
afternoon and evening. There are a cluster of thunderstorms well
north of KBLH, but this cluster is not expected to impact the
terminal.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will gradually take hold across the region this
weekend into early next week leading to drying conditions and
diminishing rain chances. Today will again bring chances for
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms, but less than a 10%
chance for wetting rains. Rain chances will mostly come to an end
beginning Sunday. Humidities will remain elevated this weekend
before lowering early next week as MinRHs drop to below 30% Monday
and 15-25% on Tuesday. Winds will continue to be light and favor
diurnal patterns through early next week. Dry conditions with near
zero rain chances and MinRHs back into the teens are then likely
for the latter half of next week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion