El Paso, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

260
FXUS64 KEPZ 100418
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1018 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 944 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week.
- Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance
  for thunderstorms in area mountains and near the Arizona border.
- Moisture pushes east for Friday into Saturday bringing isolated
  thunderstorms to the region along with a gradual cool down in
  temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Our good old friend, the upper level ridge, is on the move again
tonight. The upper level ridge is sliding across northern Mexico
and will be centered over west Texas by Wednesday afternoon. At
the same time an approaching upper level trough will be moving
into the California coast. The circulation around these two
weather features will begin to draw moisture up from the south,
but it will be a slow process. By Wednesday afternoon the weak
moisture plume will be centered just to the west of New Mexico. A
few storms may drift into the area from Arizona, but like Tuesday,
most of us will stay dry. High temperatures on Wednesday will run
5 to 7 degrees above average, that will put much of the lowlands
in the mid 90`s. There is a 20 to 30% chance for El Paso to hit
100 degrees which may be the last chance for a triple digit
reading this year.
On Thursday, not much will change, the trough will be out west and
the ridge will be just to our east. The narrow plume of moisture
will drift ever so slightly to the east. Basically thunderstorm
coverage on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday. Our high
temperatures on Thursday will come down a degree or two from
Wednesday`s highs. By Friday the upper level ridge will drift a
little east and the upper level trough will also push a little
east, which means the narrow band of moisture will move into
western New Mexico. Best chances for rain Friday afternoon will be
west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Friday will drop a
degree or two again.
For the weekend, the trough to our west will lift up and move
across southern Colorado. This will help bring a better chance for
rain to the whole area as the trough moves out on Saturday. By
Sunday the southwest flow aloft looks to keep the moisture plume
centered just to our east, but at the surface, southeasterly flow
will allow some moisture back in at the low levels. Right now it
looks like convection will be limit on Sunday, mainly to locations
east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures this weekend will run a
degree or two above average. For next Monday and Tuesday, we will
see better rain chances and high temperatures a degree or two
below average as more moisture moves back into the region.
Hopefully we can squeeze out some more rain days before we wrap up
this year`s monsoon season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Clouds and convection are quickly dying off this evening. For the
rest of the night and into the morning we will have light and
variable winds. By late Wednesday morning into the afternoon we
will have generally southerly wnds with some low end wind gusts
for a few hours in the late afternoon. Our ceilings will be
unlimited tonight and most of the day on Wednesday. The one
exception will be some mid and high cloud ceilings west of the
Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. Most of the area will
stay thunderstorm free Wednesday afternoon, but like Tuesday, a
few storms may develop. The best thunderstorm chances will be in
area mountains and near the NM/AZ border.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Temperatures will remain above average through at least Thursday
before cooling down closer to normal by early next week. RH`s will
fall into the mid teens to mid 20s through Thu and then about a 5%
increase for Fri/Sat. Dry conditions over most of the area as well
through Thu with only storm chances coming near the AZ border
region and an isolated storm on the Sacs. An upper trough moves
through Fri into Sat and brings widely scattered storms to the
entire area. Vent rates will mainly be very good across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            62  91  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               66  95  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70  95  66  94 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  71  50  70 /   0  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  92  66  91 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              63  87  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Deming                   66  97  65  95 /   0  10  10  10
Lordsburg                67  94  65  92 /   0  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro       72  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65  95  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             70  97  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  95  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  95  68  93 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67  94  66  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                    67  97  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 68  97  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                65  93  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  56  82  53  81 /  10  20   0   0
Mescalero                56  82  55  82 /   0  30  10   0
Timberon                 54  80  53  78 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  56  85  55  83 /  10  20   0  20
Hillsboro                63  92  63  91 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                65  92  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             57  87  57  86 /   0  20  10  20
Hurley                   62  90  61  88 /  10  20  10  10
Cliff                    65  94  64  92 /   0  20  20  20
Mule Creek               62  90  60  87 /  10  20  20  20
Faywood                  65  90  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
Animas                   67  95  66  92 /  10  20  20  20
Hachita                  66  94  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           65  93  63  91 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               65  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion