Eli, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS63 KLBF 262009
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak cool front drops highs back to more seasonal levels in the
  middle 70s for Saturday.
- Expect breezy conditions Monday through Wednesday with gusty winds
  mainly in the afternoon hours.
- Temperatures will remain warmer than average beyond Saturday
  with highs generally in lower 80s. Average highs for next week
  are are in the lower 70s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
H5 analysis this morning had a low amplitude ridge
extending from southern Nebraska into southern portions of Manitoba.
West of the ridge, a shortwave trough of low pressure was present
from central Alberta, south into western Montana. South of this
feature, a closed low was located over southern California with a
trough extending south into northern portions of Baja California.
Across the eastern CONUS, a trough of low pressure extended from
western Pennsylvania, southeast into northwestern portions of the
Gulf. Within this trough, a tandem of shortwaves were noted-the
first over western Pennsylvania and a second over southwestern
Tennessee. At the surface this afternoon...Low pressure was located
over eastern Saskatchewan. A cold front extended to the south
southwest of this feature into southwestern South Dakota. A surface
trough extended from central South Dakota into central Nebraska.
This was more of a wind direction boundary with southerly winds east
of the trough and southwesterly or west-southwest winds to the west
of this boundary. Skies were clear across the area this afternoon
and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 81 degrees at North Platte to
87 degrees at Valentine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The northern stream trough (over Montana-indicated in the
synopsis section above), will traverse south central Canada
tonight ending up in western Ontario Saturday morning. This
feature will force a cool front into western and north central
Nebraska this evening. For aviation purposes, the wind shift
appeared too slow given this morning`s HRRR and NAM12 solns. The
frontal timing was sped up 2 to 4 hours across the area and now
aligns better with the latest NBM soln. Already as of mid
afternoon, the front has passed through Rapid City SD and was
approaching far SW South Dakota and NW Nebraska mid-afternoon.
With this in mind, the front should clear the forecast area by
midnight this evening. There will be a brief increase in
northerly winds as the front passes, however, CAA is meager with
this front and am not expecting gusts much over 25 MPH
immediately behind the front. By 12z Saturday, high pressure
will build into NW Nebraska diminishing winds and leading to
strong radiational cooling. That being said, lowered minimum
temps tonight 2 to 4 degrees in the NW CWA from the inherited
forecast given the clear skies and light winds overnight. This
was more in line with the latest MET and MAV guidance which
paints lower 40s in the western Sandhills and NW Nebraska. High
pressure will build into eastern Nebraska Saturday, shifting
winds to the east than south during the afternoon. Readings will
be 5 to 7 degrees cooler than this afternoon, with seasonal
highs in the middle 70s. Lows Saturday night will be around 2 to
4 degrees warmer compared to tonight`s forecast. This due to a
persistent southerly wind on the back side of the high and minor
low level WAA. Lows Saturday night will bottom out around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Ridging aloft will be forced east Sunday into Monday. At the
same time, a shortwave trough, currently over southern
California, will lift into the intermountain west. In advance of
this feature, the ridge breakdown, will lead to a decent
rebound in temps Sunday with highs in the mid 80s expected. A
piece of the shortwave will lift from the central Rockies into
the northern high plains Sunday night. Right now, not concerned
about precipitation chances given our fairly dry airmass and
ensemble forecasts indicating little to no threat for measurable
rain across the area. That being said, will continue a dry
forecast for Sunday night into Monday. Monday through Friday-
highs will generally be around 80 degrees each day with mainly
dry conditions expected. There are two periods where there is a
small chance for precipitation Monday through Friday. The first
is Tuesday night over the western portion of the forecast area,
and the second is Wednesday night in the east. In both cases,
less than half of the ensemble members indicate measurable
precipitation with either event. Of those members which do
indicate QPF, they are very light with almost all of those
members indicating QPF under 0.05 inches. The latest NBM did
initialize some slight chance pops for those two periods. Will
let them ride for now, however am not very confident we will see
measurable pcpn. Beyond Friday, the latest deterministic GFS
and EC solns do track a decent trough across the central and
northern plains next weekend. There is some limited support for
precipitation with the GFS and EC ensembles from this morning
and believe this is our next somewhat "decent" chance for
precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Expect clear skies over the next 24 hours at both terminals. A
cool front will track across the area this evening. This will
shift the winds from the south to north. The wind shift is
expected around 00z to 02z at the KVTN terminal and from 01z to
03Z at the KLBF terminal this evening. Expect a brief increase
in wind speeds with the frontal passage of 10 to 15 KTS with
winds diminishing to under 10 KTS after 06z tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion