Ellerbe, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

603
FXUS62 KRAH 271040
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front over the Piedmont of North Carolina will drift
slowly southeast over the central and eastern Carolinas today
through tonight, before settling near the Carolina coast on Sunday
as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough to our west today will weaken and lift northeast into
the Mid Atlantic region through Sunday. A potential tropical cyclone
near northeast Cuba this morning could approach the Carolina coast
Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...
* The risk for excessive rainfall continues in the NW Piedmont early
  this morning, however the greatest heavy rain threat for later
  today and tonight has shifted E into E NC.
Bands of moderate rain and embedded thunder continue at this hour
from the S Foothills through the NW Piedmont of NC and across S VA,
while lighter showers are noted over the rest of central NC
southward through central/S SC. The heavier rain over W NC/S VA is
near the surface frontal zone and corresponds to focused lift
associated with a mid level perturbation lifting NNE on the E side
of the trough and low to our W from the Ohio Valley to AL, as well
as an upper div max in the RR quadrant of the upper jet. The mid
level wave will lift into VA this morning while the upper jet
entrance region slowly decelerates, resulting in a decreasing threat
for widespread heavy rainfall over the Piedmont by later this
morning. The mid level trough/low will gradually weaken as it lifts
ENE into W NC today and up through the Shenandoah Valley tonight,
while the corresponding surface front analyzed from the FL Panhandle
through the W Piedmont across S VA drifts slowly ESE through our
area into E NC. Our PW remains elevated this morning over much of
the CWA, around 125%-140% of normal, however as drier air noted on
WV imagery over the Gulf states and N Gulf swings ENE into W NC, we
should see convection coverage and intensity decrease markedly over
the W CWA. Models agree fairly well on the axis of high PW shifting
into E NC this afternoon and tonight, and while there will be some
overlap of stronger forcing for ascent, surface forcing along the
front, and much above normal PW in our far NE today, this area has
lacked substantial rainfall recently, with 

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion