Ellsworth Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

546
FXUS63 KLBF 071158
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
658 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Frost Advisory remains in effect until later this morning
  for Garden, Sheridan, and western Cherry Counties.
- After one more cooler day Wednesday, temperatures rebound to
  the upper 70s and lower 80s for Thursday through Saturday
  with largely dry conditions.
- Large upper-trough will settle into the Northern Rockies by
  early next week, bringing increased precipitation chances in
  addition to cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
This morning, surface high pressure was settling south into western
Nebraska. This has led to light winds across the area under clearing
skies. The combination of these two has allowed for strong
radiational cooling with low temperatures to fall into the middle to
upper 30s for much of the Sandhills into Nebraska Panhandle. Frost
Advisories continue for Sheridan, Garden, and western Cherry
Counties as a result. Based on late Monday evening model guidance
including statistical guidance, no changes were made to the
inherited headline. While some isolated areas of low to mid-level
clouds are developing over the Sandhills, these should remain fairly
sparse in coverage and shouldn`t hinder the cooldown much if at all.
Further south, increased mid-level cloudiness is apparent for our
southwest zones. This lines up well with some modest mid-level
convergence. Though radar imagery suggests a few high level echoes,
nothing has succeeded in reaching the surface north of the
Nebraska/Kansas state line. Believe this will continue through the
remainder of the early morning and so have maintained a dry forecast.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...temperatures should see a slight boost from
Monday`s values across the whole of the region. This will occur as
surface high pressure departs the local area and southerly flow
returns. Temperatures at h85 will see a 2-4C climb with surface
temperatures likely matching that same climb. Afternoon highs as a
result will settle into the middle 60s. Skies should remain mostly
sunny as winds continue to be light and variable. Later tonight, a
modest LLJ will develop and should promote increasingly breezy winds
during the evening. This will favor our western zones and leaned on
a blend of the NBM/NBM90 for overnight winds which produced a few
areas of 25-30 mph gusts, particularly for higher terrain areas such
as the Pine Ridge. While expecting another cooler night, lows should
manage to remain in the 40s which is mild for the time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Ridging aloft begins to build northward through the plains on
Wednesday. Ridging will continue to amplify Thursday into Friday as
a deep upper trough starts to dig southward along the west coast. By
Saturday, the ridge will shift eastward slightly as the west coast
upper trough begins to eject northeastward toward the northern
Rockies Saturday and into Canada by Sunday. Overall, this looks to
be a dry and warm pattern for our area through Sunday. Highs will
warm from the mid 60s to near 70 Wednesday into the 70s to lower 80s
Thursday through Sunday. As the ridging aloft begins to breakdown
Saturday, gusty south winds appear they will develop. Humidity seems
to remain only marginally low as some low-level moisture is returned
northward into the area on the southerly flow. Will have to monitor
this however, if the air is drier and humidity lower, then some fire
weather concern could develop.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period.
Early this morning, patchy valley fog was observed across
portions of western Nebraska. Any fog should be shallow in
nature and quick to dissipate later this morning. The remainder
of the period will be dominated by passing high pressure with
light winds during the day Tuesday and increasing southerly
winds tonight. Will need to watch for potential LLWS concerns
but confidence in this was too low to mention at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ004-022-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion