Elmhurst, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

255
FXUS61 KBGM 131504
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1104 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather over the next week, bringing
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. There will be a small
chance for a few isolated rain showers or sprinkles later today into
Sunday, but otherwise dry and warmer than average weather will
persist through most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak, moisture starved frontal boundary will push through the area
this afternoon. While mid level moisture and cloud cover will
increase, soundings indicate dry conditions in the low levels of the
atmosphere persist below 700mb. There will be a very low chance for
a few isolated showers or sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but
based on the latest guidance this is below even the slight chance
category of 15% for measurable rainfall. Overall, expect mostly
sunny skies this morning, giving way to partly/mostly cloudy skies
in the mid to late afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly late in
the day, less than 10 mph and high temperatures will still reach the
mid-70s to lower 80s areawide. a few sprinkles or very light showers
may lingering into tonight with generally decreasing clouds and
overnight lows in the 50s. Sunday features about a 10% chance for an
isolated shower over the Catskills, otherwise dry and mostly sunny
with high temperatures very similar to today`s expected readings.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This period will feature an anomalously strong upper level
ridge and sprawling surface high pressure over the region. This
will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny/clear the entire time.
There will likely be some early morning fog along the typical
river and creek valleys as lows dip down into the upper 40s and
50s. Meanwhile, daytime highs will be about 10-12 degrees above
average for mid-September, reaching into the upper 70s to mid-80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level ridge looks to gradually break down and deamplify
during this mid to late week period. The ridge will be broken down
by a rather weak, undercutting upper level low over the Southeast,
then very slowly drifts north-northeast and weakens further by
Thursday over the northern Mid-Atlantic states. We then wait for the
next northern stream upper level energy and trough to approach...but
this likely will not be until Friday or next Saturday. Temperatures
aloft, at 850mb will hover near +15C during this entire period
under the remnants of the ridge. So this will continue to
support well above average daytime highs.
As for  sensible weather conditions: Wednesday is likely to
remain dry, mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or
storm by Thursday afternoon, mainly in NE PA...closer to the
weakening Mid-Atlantic upper level trough; otherwise mostly
sunny and continued warm. Friday is likely another dry and
mostly sunny day, with just a slight chance for an isolated
shower...steady high temperatures between 75-85F expected. At
this point in time, there is a good deal of uncertainty and
spread in the ensemble guidance for the start of next
weekend...so continued with more dry conditions as the 01z NBM
was not onboard with the possible wetter conditions shown by the
deterministic 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS just yet.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z Update...
Sent a non mission critical "courtesy" update to emphasize BKN-
OVC mid layer cloudiness coming in heavier than expected in
prior forecast. Still a VFR day. Also attempted to fine tune
wind shift associated with passing FROPA today.
VFR conditions expected across all terminals into the overnight
hours. Fog is expected to return to ELM tonight, with periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions. Guidance is also showing some fog at RME,
but given the lack of precipitation over the past week plus,
confidence was not high enough to include fog in the TAF at this
time.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog each
late night/early morning at KELM will likely bring restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JAB/JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion