Elsinore, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

282
FXUS65 KSLC 272158
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
358 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will gradually move through the
region, spreading precipitation chances northward as the weekend
progresses. A deepening system across the Pacific coast will then
push a modest cold front through by Tuesday, with potential for a
more robust frontal passage later in the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The large-scale pattern this afternoon consists of a
cutoff low centered near the CA/AZ border. Along its northeastern
periphery, southeasterly flow is helping to draw moisture from
Arizona back into Utah. PWATs are currently 0.6-0.7 inches across
much of the area, with around 0.8 inches across far southwest Utah.
Scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms have
develop over southern and central Utah as a result. However, these
have not been especially strong thus far owing in part to some
earlier cloud cover and morning showers. However, instability is
gradually increasing, with SBCAPE values now generally around 500-
1000 J/kg currently across southern Utah. This should allow for a
few stronger storms to develop over southern Utah, with locally
heavy rain which, if occurring over some of the more sensitive
areas, could lead to flash flooding. However, this threat should
remain fairly isolated through this evening. Farther north into
central Utah, owing to somewhat drier low levels, gusty outflow
winds are more likely than heavy rain, with a few 40-50 mph gusts
possible.
An upstream trough is progged to amplify off the West Coast
tomorrow. Developing southwesterly flow ahead of it will help nudge
the cutoff low away from its current position. As such, expect it to
eject towards Utah tomorrow while gradually filling and weakening.
As it does so, moisture will continue spreading north through Utah
tonight into tomorrow morning, which will result in more widespread
convection especially with daytime heating in the afternoon.
However, many of the showers and thunderstorms are likely to remain
focused over/near the spine of Utah. Given the moisture and H7 cold
advection tomorrow, temperatures will be a bit cooler with afternoon
maxes trending 3-10 degrees cooler compared to today, bringing
northern Utah down to near climatological normals and southern Utah
to below normal.
Behind the departing storm system, a drier southwesterly flow aloft
will spread into Utah for Monday, which will allow temperatures to
trend slightly warmer. However, this drying and warming trend is not
expected to persist as the upstream trough starts to make its way
onto the West Coast. This trough is expected to weaken as it lifts
across northern Utah on Tuesday, with fairly good agreement between
models. Cluster analysis of ensemble members show little variation
between the clusters. This trough looks to be accompanied by
precipitation for northern Utah on Tuesday. Because of the weakening
nature of the trough, the lack of a substantial cold front is noted
in the models, and temperatures are only expected to see a modest
decrease.
A progressive weather pattern is expected to continue thereafter,
with another storm system expected to deepen off the PacNW coast by
Wednesday. This will again bring increasing southwesterly flow to
Utah ahead of it. There remains some uncertainty regarding the
strength and progression of this storm, with a 60/40 split in the
cluster analysis between a less amplified, faster solution versus a
slower, deeper solution. Regardless, this will bring another
potential for cooler temperatures and moisture for at least northern
Utah during the latter part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...KSLC...Light northwest winds will transition to
southeast around 03Z. Clouds will increase after 00Z, with isolated
rain showers through 12Z. Any showers will be light, but capable of
gusty, erratic outflow winds. Largely dry conditions will prevail
from 12-18Z, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds after.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broken to overcast clouds in
VFR range will prevail throughout. Scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms, primarily throughout southern Utah, will become more
isolated from 00-03Z. Isolated showers will continue for southwest
Wyoming and much of Utah through 12Z. Any shower or thunderstorm
will be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds. Largely dry
conditions will prevail from 12-18Z, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely after.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system is currently located near the
California/Arizona border this afternoon. Southeasterly flow along
its northeastern periphery continues to draw moisture from Arizona
into Utah, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to continue into
this evening, especially across southern and central Utah. Some of
the stronger storms across southern Utah will have a good chance of
producing wetting rain. Farther north, wetting rain chances will be
reduced owing to somewhat drier low levels and weaker instability.
Moisture will continue to lift north overnight with some lingering
showers continuing. Tomorrow afternoon, as the low pressure system
starts ejecting northeastward into Utah, showers and thunderstorms
will become more widespread over the area, although many will be
focused on the higher terrain along the spine of Utah, where wetting
rain chances will be higher.
After the storm system exits the area on Monday, a brief drying
trend can be expected. However, with the next storm system deepening
over the West Coast, expect southerly winds to begin increasing. By
Tuesday, this storm system will eject across Utah and is expected to
bring some precipitation to northern Utah along with a cooling
trend. Thereafter, another brief drying trend is expected while
southwesterly flow starts to increase again ahead of yet another
storm system. This next storm is currently expected to push a cold
front into the area late week, although some uncertainty exists in
relation to its strength and timing.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Cheng/Wilson
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion