Encino, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

893
FXUS64 KBRO 291726
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
* Pleasant weather to end September and begin October, with nice
  overnight and early morning temperatures and a stray late
  night/morning shower along and near the coast.
* Rain chances may increase each afternoon Friday through Monday,
  but confidence is low and amounts should be light, with minimal
  impact on activities
* Moderate intensity rip currents for most of the week will create
  hidden dangers for swimmers at the barrier island beaches
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Rest of today through Thursday:
The turn of the calendar from September into October will feature
a continued broad 500 mb ridge that will extend from
Sonora/Chihuahua southeast through Tamaulipas and the western Gulf
through Thursday. Combined with weak high pressure over central
Texas, this will ensure more early October- like weather through
Thursday...fair conditions with light northeast winds by day and
nearly calm winds overnight. May see some patchy light fog across
rural areas in both the Valley and ranchlands each
overnight/morning through Thursday, but not enough to be a
forecast concern.
During this time, the only "fly in the ointment" is a weak but
notable surface circulation east of northern Veracruz/southern
Tamaulipas. The aforementioned 500 mb ridge should effectively
"pinch" this area in place, but models/blends suggest very small
chances of northeast-southwest streamer showers that could briefly
sneak onshore each morning..but elected to modify the default
forecast to keep these mainly in the Gulf as atmospheric dry air
and location of the upper level ridging should keep things mainly
over the water.
Friday through Monday:
The ridge should retrograde a bit farther west and become more
meridional-shaped (north to south), which may allow the west side
of a weak trough parked over the southeast U.S. (and helping to
steer Tropical Storm Imelda to the north, than east- northeast) to
back up into the eastern half of Texas. Any deeper moisture
associated with this system could nudge into our area, increasing
rain chances along the sea breeze beginning Friday and peaking
over the weekend. The key word is "any" as deterministic models of
the GFS/Canadian GEM/ECMWF are more bearish on both precipitation
and inland extent. In short, despite the daily 30-50 percent
(afternoon) rain chances shown Saturday- Monday out to Jim
Hogg/Starr County may be a bit overdone, so we`ll need to keep an
eye on trends. Bottom line? Confidence is not sufficient to cancel
any weekend plans due to rain, but keep an umbrella handy.
With some increase in humidity over the weekend, overnight/morning
temperatures will rise a bit but still fall well short of the
early-mid September swelter. Daytime temperatures will remain a
couple degrees above seasonal averages, which by this weekend fall
to the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.
Finally...with some increase in wave period and even wave energy
due to the weak circulation to our southwest through Wednesday,
then a broader increase due to stronger high pressure building
across the southeast U.S. behind Imelda, rip current intensity
will rise to moderate as early as Tuesday...and could reach high
intensity over the weekend as the eastern fetch strengthens and
lengthens. With surf temperature likely to remain in the lower 80s
through the period, the water will be inviting for those taking an
early autumn vacation to the shore.
As for tidal run-up? Something that will need to be watched headed
into the late weekend and early next week. Fortunately, predicted
tides reach a brief lowering value on the 4th and 5th, but would
not surprise to see some limited beach over next weekend and into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Fair weather with mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. May need to watch for a brief period of MVFR/high IFR
visibility on approach to both Harlingen and McAllen, but for now
will keep the mention out of the TAFs since the past two mornings
have seen limited to no visibility drops. The situation may lend
itself more by Wednesday morning as surface moisture begins to
rise. Otherwise, mainly VFR scattered fair-weather cumulus from
late each morning through just after sunset, and light northeast
winds becoming slightly stronger by mid afternoon due to the sea
breeze.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Rest of today through Thursday:
Generally light to moderate northeast winds and slight to moderate
seas, mainly 2 to 3 feet, should dominate the forecast. However,
we`ll keep an eye on the weak circulation east of
Veracruz/southern Tamaulipas through Wednesday, as we`ve noted
that Buoy 42002 (200 miles east of SPI) has shown 4 to nearly 6
foot combined seas with a modest swell, so far. With a general
northeast/north-northeast flow on the west side of the
circulation, the higher swell should remain south of the waters -
including the legs east of SPI - but something to keep an eye on
if pressures drop just a little more.
Thursday night through Saturday night:
A lot will depend on how strong and far south the eastern U.S.
surface ridge develops. Both GFS and ECMWF deterministic models
show the entire northern half of the Gulf in a fairly pronounced
easterly fetch by early Saturday, which would begin impacting our
shoreline with higher seas and moderate east-northeast flow. There
is some potential for Caution (6 foot) values as early as
Saturday, but current forecast indicates 4 to perhaps 5 feet.
Either way, conditions will become a little more difficult for
weekend excursions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
September is about to close, with overall temperatures ranking
among the top 5 to 20 hottest on record, and, despite the frequent
isolated-scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for most days,
slightly below average, area-wide, on rainfall. We`ll provide more
details by Wednesday after the month is complete.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  90  74  91 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               68  92  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 72  95  72  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  87 /  10  20  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  88  74  89 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52-Goldsmith
LONG TERM....52-Goldsmith
AVIATION...52-Goldsmith

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion