Ennis, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

797
FXUS65 KTFX 120211
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
811 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
   afternoon, some of which could produce some gusty winds or
   localized heavy rain.
 - Briefly warmer Sunday.
 - Cool and unsettled weather returns on Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to track generally northward
across the area within the broad circulation of an elongated
trough extending from the Great Basin through the Northern
Rockies. A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is
associated with an embedded vorticity feature lifting out across
west-central MT this evening, but overall diffluent flow aloft
and lingering mid-level instability will maintain a risk for
showers and at least a few isolated thunderstorms through much of
the overnight period with activity gradually shifting northward
across north-central MT while decreasing or ending across SW MT.
Clearing of clouds across southwest MT may lead to some patchy
valley fog development, especially in locations that saw
precipitation earlier this evening. Hoenisch
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 516 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
A broad, slow moving, and gradually weakening upper level trough
currently over the Western US will keep us cool and unsettled the
next few days before another trough approaches from the west and
forces it to move northward on Sunday. With this trough to the
west, expect Sunday to be slightly warmer highs generally 3-5
degrees warmer than the previous few days. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be around, however, especially
later in the day as afternoon heating combines with the
approaching upper level trough. This trough will settle overhead
for the first half of the week, bringing cool and unsettled to the
area for the first half of next week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main impacts over the next few days will be the low end risk
for an isolated strong and/or heavy thunderstorm, particularly
this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings the next
two days tend to show a tall, skinny CAPE profile (CAPE being a
measure of instability), which indicates an elevated chance for
some heavy rain out of any shower or thunderstorm. WPC does align
with this expectation, as we are under a Marginal () risk for
excessive rainfall. For the most part, the main concern will be
any recent burn scars (such as the Horse Gulch or any active
fires). In addition to the rain, a few stronger wind gusts will be
possible from some of the storms as well, particularly further
east across the plains (generally east of a Great Falls to Havre
line).
Looking into next week, there isnt much impactful weather
expected at this time, though showers and thunderstorms are
expected most days. Also of note, with the upper level low across
the area in the first part of next week, I cant really rule out
some snow falling at the higher elevations of Beaverhead, Madison,
and Gallatin Counties. While any snow accumulations will be light
and isolated to the highest terrain, it is still noteworthy as
some of the first snow of the season. Ludwig
&&
.AVIATION...
12/00Z TAF Period
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to track
northward from southwest MT through central and north-central MT
this evening. Gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and lighting
are the primary concerns associated with storms, with brief
periods of mountain obscuration in the vicinity of cells while VFR
conditions generally prevail at terminals. Hoenisch
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A few heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible today. While
unlikely, should one of the heaviest rain showers hit a burn scar
some flash flooding may be possible. Ludwig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  77  49  78 /  40  30  20  20
CTB  48  76  46  77 /  20  30  20  10
HLN  49  77  49  76 /  60  40  20  30
BZN  43  76  44  71 /  40  30  10  30
WYS  33  70  34  63 /  10  30  20  50
DLN  41  72  41  70 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  54  78  51  78 /  40  40  30  20
LWT  48  75  47  71 /  30  40  40  50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion