Enterprise, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS62 KTAE 231058
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
658 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Not much in the way of noteworthy weather today-tonight outside of
chances for early-morning fog around I-75, and isolated seabreeze
convection. Weak surface high pressure anchored along/offshore
the Eastern Seaboard fosters easterly winds that will continue to
moisten the low levels with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A narrow upper-level trough axis bisecting the Tri-State area
down to the East Gulf keeps a belt of deeper, tropical moisture
over the FL Peninsula, as seen on satellite-derived Precipitable
Water. This pattern supports a continued trend of toasty days and
unseasonably warm nights/mornings. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the low to mid 90s under a mix of sun & clouds while lows
only hover around 70 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The upper-level pattern becomes more progressive as a broad trough
amplifies from the Midwest and takes on a positive tilt during the
short-term period. An attendant frontal boundary then drops into the
Deep South and become a focus for clusters of showers &
thunderstorms. Surface high pressure responds by shifting eastward,
thus allowing for low-level winds to veer more out of the SE ahead
of the front. Our local airmass should therefore moisten back to
levels supportive of deeper convection and subsequent better rain
chances, starting Thursday. The incoming rain will be much
welcomed given the ongoing drought conditions that has been
plaguing us this month.
Environmental conditions based on modeled soundings ahead of the
front appear favorable for semi-organized convection capable of
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. It
would not be surprising to see an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
introduced to NW portions of the Tri-State area in future outlooks.
High temperatures are forecast to cool from the low-to-mid 90s on
Wednesday to more widespread low 90s on Thursday. Overnight lows
are slated to be in the very warm low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Wet weather continues into the weekend as the frontal system
attendant to a broad positively tilted trough gradually moves across
the region. Frontal passage appears to be some time on Saturday or
Sunday with drier air filtering in its wake from the north.
Thereafter, the forecast becomes a bit nebulous thanks global model
disagreement on the evolution of a upper low slated to cutoff
somewhere over the SE US, then meander about. Finer details will
need to be resolved to yield higher confidence on what our sensible
weather will look like. For now, rain chances are blend of the NBM &
CONSAll to account for the uncertainty. Regardless, expect
widespread high temperatures in the 80s (isolated around 90 degrees)
and lows mostly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The main concern through the early morning hours is the possibility
for patchy fog and low ceilings at VLD. Fog and low ceilings will
dissipate by mid-morning with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A late-night ASCAT pass showed light/variable winds over Apalachee
Bay.
CWF Synopsis: Surface high pressure along and east of the Eastern
Seaboard fosters easterly winds today with a local shift to
southwesterly from the afternoon seabreeze across the immediate
nearshore legs. High pressure then shifts farther into the Western
Atlantic in response to an approaching frontal system from the west
on Wednesday. Winds turn southerly, followed by southwesterly as the
front approaches on Thursday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast late week into the weekend. Offshore post-
frontal winds on Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Very warm and mostly dry conditions continue the next couple days
outside of isolated seabreeze convection. A frontal system then
moves into the region and is forecast to bring widespread wetting
rains in addition to thunderstorms. Pockets of high dispersions are
possible mainly north of the FL state line mid-week. Southeast winds
today turn more southwesterly along/ahead of the front by
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mostly dry weather holds for the next 2 days before a frontal system
brings the first meaningful chances for rain this month on Thursday.
Widespread amounts of at least a quarter of an inch are likely with
isolated 2-inches+ possible from the strongest thunderstorms. These
values, while beneficial, are not by any means drought-busting, but
it`s a start! The axis of greatest precipitation appears to be the
FL Panhandle, SE AL Wiregrass, and parts of the ACF basin. Although
look to dry out late Saturday or early Sunday following frontal
passage, these conditions may be short-lived depending on the
evolution of a cutoff area of low pressure expected to meander about
the Deep South. Stay tuned.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  72  94  71 /  20   0  10   0
Panama City   90  72  89  74 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        94  70  94  72 /  10  10   0  10
Albany        93  70  95  72 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      93  71  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    92  72  93  72 /  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  87  74  86  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion