Esbon, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

112
FXUS63 KGID 091155
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning will burn off by midday, with a
  potential repeat of some morning fog both Wednesday and
  Thursday mornings.
- Spotty/periodic thunderstorm chances are anticipated across at
  least parts of the local area through the end of the work week.
- Temperatures will continue a steady climb across the area
  each day this week, peaking in the lower 90s Friday afternoon.
- Slightly cooler weather is anticipated over the upcoming
  weekend as shower/thunderstorm activity increases across the
  local area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Per coordination with neighboring offices and mainly based on
HRRR model data, decided to issue a dense fog advisory for
western portions of the local area through 10 AM. So far, only
Cambridge, NE has seen visibilities fall notably (with web cams
so far not verifying current conditions), but models indicate
there will be rapid deterioration over the next hour or two, and
thought it was prudent to issue the advisory at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Low level stratus can be seen expanding in coverage across the
region this morning as the showers and thunderstorms that
developed late last night continue to exit the area to the
east. So far we have seen only some patchy fog across Furnas
county locally, but expect fog to expand in coverage over the
next few hours as we approach daybreak, with the thickest fog
anticipated across areas mainly along and west of Highway 281.
Once developed, it will likely take several hours for this fog
to dissipate, potentially holding down high temperatures a few
degrees, with mostly sunny skies eventually expected to return
to the entire area during the afternoon hours.
For the rest of the week...expect temperatures to gradually warm
across the local area each day as high pressure aloft
intensifies ahead of a west coast trough. This will be a bit of
a messy ridge, however, with indications of multiple weak
disturbances reaching the local area and bringing with them
spotty precip chances primarily focused during the evening and
overnight hours.
Eventually, expect the west coast trough to migrate eastward by
the weekend, bringing a better chance for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity...with ensembles showing an
uptick in precipitation chances over the weekend. That said,
most members indicate precip totals this weekend will be modest,
with overall qpf amounts generally less than 0.5". Still plenty
of time for changes, but for the time being it appears that
there will be increased cloud cover, slightly cooler
temperatures and some light precip around over the upcoming
weekend, with severe weather unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Generally poor conditions will continue at both terminals
through at least 09/16Z as low level stratus and some fog has
filled in across the region. Expect KEAR to see slightly worse
conditions than KGRI as LXN has dropped to 1/4SM. Once the low
stratus and fog lifts by late morning...expect VFR conditions to
return for the remainder of the day with light southerly to
southeasterly winds less than 10 KTS. Could see a repeat
performance of fog again this evening based on SREF probs...and
have MVFR conditions returning late in the period (10/09Z) as
some BR/low stratus is once again expected to develop across the
area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
An Areal Flood Warning for much of Mitchell County Kansas
continues through 2 PM this afternoon. Excessive
runoff from rainfall that impacted much of Mitchell county
Monday morning will continue to work its way downstream through
the morning hours, helping to ease flood concerns.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-046-
     060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
HYDROLOGY...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion