Eunice, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

901
FXUS64 KLIX 091142
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Another drier, comfortable morning for most north of the I-10/12
corridor. River drainages are seeing more efficient cooling this
morning with lower wind speeds so have adjusted below NBM guidance
to the low 60s in these areas.
A weak sfc low associated with the remnants of the front that
passed through the area over this past weekend is the main feature
influencing today`s weather. This low is encountering hostile
westerly shear and dry air into the circulation which,
fortunately, is not a concern for tropical development given these
reasons, but will slowly drift west bringing a lobe of moisture
with it. CAMs identify enough associated moisture and lift to
surge a few scattered showers/storms (squalls) west Tuesday
morning into the afternoon hours. However, these will be battling
the dry continental airmass in place as they progress west. Not
overly confident on coverage at this point, with NBM coming in
generally in the 20-40% range (50-60% coastal) which is plausible
given the aforementioned meteorological reasonings and short-range
trends. Overall, best chances for a passing shower or storm will
be across coastal SE LA and MS, and any advancement
westward/inland could struggle as dry air eventually winds over
dissipating activity. Additional focus of afternoon storms
westward would likely be focused along the lake breeze near
southern Livingston and Tangipahoa Parishes moving westward. As
such, cannot rule out a stray late afternoon shower in Baton
Rouge.
As daytime heating wanes, expect any remaining showers/storms to
dissipate and scattered to broken skies with added moisture will
keep overnight temperatures closer to near normal again for
Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Going into mid/late week, quiet! High pressure begins to win over
the eastern/southeastern US keeping to keep conditions calm and
quiet. Few extra shots of dry continental air will continue to
keep it comfortable following afternoon mixing. This will also
continue to suppress Gulf moisture south of the coast and greatly
hinder PoPs to no higher than 10%. Highs in the low to mid 90`s
but afternoon dewpoints in the 60`s will prevent any excessive
heat concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Terminals all VFR at forecast issuance. Scattered SHRA noted on
radar over the eastern coastal waters, moving westward. Potential
for those to impact KASD, KNEW, KMSY and perhaps KGPT in the next
2-3 hours. Any threat for TSRA would likely be late morning to
late afternoon. Expected areal coverage probably wouldn`t justify
anything more than PROB30, and left out of KBTR entirely. Threat
will be non-zero beyond sunset, but not enough to justify mention
in forecast at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The primary driver of weather in the short-term stems from the
decaying frontal boundary and weak sfc low situated in the SE
Gulf. This low will encroach and tighten the pressure gradient
over the next day or so leading to unsettled conditions for small
crafts. Winds over the coastal waters will ramp back up through
the morning hours for all coastal waters with sustained winds of
10 to 15 knots near the immediate coast and 15 to 20 knots over
open waters of the sounds, lakes, and Gulf. Can`t rule out some
gusty winds/squalls with these showers/storms early Tuesday into
Tuesday afternoon. Small crafts should continue to exercise
caution, especially over open Gulf waters, where waves of 4 to 7
feet and occasional wind gusts upwards of 20 to 25 knots are
expected. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these areas
east of Chandeleur and Breton Sounds, southeast of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River. Conditions will gradually settle down
Thursday into Friday, turning dry with light to occasionally
breezy winds and light waves/seas on the order of 1 to 2 feet for
protected waters, to 2 to 4 feet for Gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  90  65 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  90  70  92  68 /  20  10   0   0
ASD  87  68  90  66 /  50  10  10   0
MSY  88  75  91  75 /  50  10  10   0
GPT  87  70  89  68 /  40  10   0   0
PQL  88  68  90  65 /  40  10   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ555-557-575-
     577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ557-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion