Fairchilds, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

429
FXUS64 KHGX 111123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Summer-like temperatures return through the weekend with high
  temperatures mainly in the mid-90s with isolated readings
  reaching the upper 90s.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible near the
  coast through Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
An upper level ridge will remain dominate over Texas through the
weekend helping to bring a return to hotter, more humid,
conditions. Widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are
expected with isolated spots climbing into the upper 90s through
the weekend thanks to increased heights and abundant sunshine. The
ridge begins to break down at the start of next week leading to
daytime temperatures dropping back down a few degrees. Persistent
easterly flow will bring increased moisture to the region (PWATs
up to around 1.6-1.8", and dew points back into the upper 60s to
low 70s) leading to afternoon peak heat indices to near 100
degrees. Overnight lows will generally stay in the low to mid 70s
for much of the region with temperatures not dropping below 80
degrees at the coast.
Despite the high pressure building into the region, there will be
a chance of isolated coastal showers Thursday morning/early
afternoon thanks to increasing PWATs. The majority of the activity
will remain over the coastal waters, but some isolated showers
could move inland at times. The best chances over land will be
down near Matagorda Bay (such as Jackson, Matagorda, and Walker
counties), but there will be at least a slight chance of an
isolated shower up the SE Texas coast. Those located north of I-10
will likely see no rainfall on Thursday (and likely through the
remainder of the forecast period). As the high pressure moves
closer to SE Texas by Friday and remaining overhead over the
weekend, the chance for precipitation will be minimal with just an
isolated nocturnal shower possible over the Gulf waters. As the
high pressure begins to break down at the start of next week,
chances of at least isolated coastal showers begins to increase.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 504 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Isolated patchy fog early this morning should burn off shortly
after sunrise. VFR conditions prevailing today with light
northeast winds shifting east to southeast this afternoon. Early
Friday morning may see more isolated patchy fog in the usual fog-
prone locations (KCXO/KLBX) with brief periods of MVFR to IFR FLs
possible leading up to sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Light to occasionally moderate easterly flow (sustained 10-15kt,
gusts to 20kt) will persist through Friday. Small craft may need
to exercise caution Thursday afternoon into Friday morning for the
Gulf waters where the occasional higher gusts may become more
frequent. Winds are expected to become more southeasterly over the
weekend. Seas will be around 2-4ft through the rest of the week,
lowering to 1-3 feet by the start of next week.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to pop up
over the coastal waters early Thursday morning and continue to be
possible through through Thursday night. Friday through the
weekend will be mostly rain-free, but then chance of scattered
showers and isolated storms return Monday and continue through
midweek. Additional isolated showers will be possible through
nightly through the remainder of the week.
The persistent easterly winds will lead to higher than normal high
tides through the remainder of the week, peaking at around
3.0-3.3ft above MLLW at times of high tide.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  80  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion