Fairfield, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

865
FXUS62 KJAX 051723
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Not much change in the weather pattern through tonight as high
pressure ridge and a drier than normal airmass will remain in
place across SE GA/NE FL, although there is a model trend in
trying to bring some of the deeper moisture across Central and
South Florida slowly northward towards sunrise Saturday morning,
but any impacts from this shift will likely lead to small
increases in shower and isolated storm activity over the NE FL
Atlantic Coastal waters, along with slight chances of onshore
moving shower activity along the NE FL coastline, mainly south of
St. Augustine. Still only expecting isolated shower or storm
activity this afternoon and evening along the East Coast sea
breeze as it moves inland along and south of a line from Palm
Coast to Ocala, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected tonight
with slightly below normal temps continuing with lows in the
mid/upper 60s across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of
JAX, lows around 70F for the rest of inland NE FL and in the
middle 70s along the coastal Atlantic Areas. The low level ridge
of high pressure across SE GA, near calm winds later tonight and
mostly clear skies will allow for fog formation towards sunrise
Saturday morning and expect at least patchy fog for inland NE FL
and inland SE GA, along with some areas of fog with locally dense
fog possible across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of
JAX, but too early to determine if any dense fog advisories will
be required.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Drier than normal airmass will start to progress closer towards a
normal pattern throughout the weekend. The increasingly diffuse
frontal boundary to our south will try to lift north on
Saturday/Saturday Night, though will essentially dissipate/merge
with another frontal boundary approaching and moving across the
region Sunday and Sunday Night. Higher layer moisture gradually
fills in from south to north Saturday and Saturday Night, holding
strong through most of Sunday before some drier air tries to
advect in from the northwest Sunday Night, mainly over interior
GA. The resulting conditions with this setup will be an increase
accordingly in shower activity with some embedded thunderstorms
from south to north on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday, highest PoPs
will be found south of I-10 in the 30-50% range, which will also
be a similar case on Sunday except chances increase to around the
15-30% range north of I-10 as PWATs over 1.75 inches spread all
the way into southeast GA. Temperatures will mostly remain above
normal throughout the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s
expected, except for mid to upper 80s near the coast. Lows will
range from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s by the coast and St.
Johns River.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Most of the long term is expected to be dominated by the
aforementioned frontal boundary draped over or just south of our
area, and strong surface ridging that will build in from the north
on Monday. This ridging combined with a surface trough developing
offshore/along the front will return breezy northeasterly
conditions through much of the long term as well, continuing a
more October-like pattern in the first half of September. Coastal
convergence will result in scattered to numerous showers with some
embedded thunderstorms daily, especially over northeast FL as
drier air will fight to get into southeast GA from the northwest
most of next week. Multiple days of high rip currents, elevated
surf, and beach erosion will be likely with this pattern until the
gradient starts to relax by late in the week as the high weakens
to the northeast as another cold front approaches from the
northwest around Thursday. Temperatures trend near to below normal
for the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conds continue this afternoon with SCT Cu in the 3000-4000 ft
range and E-NE winds around 10 knots. Winds decrease after sunset
and Hi-Res models are leaning towards better fog chances in the
late night hours with light and variable winds and weak high
pressure ridge axis across the region. Expect VQQ to drop to IFR
VSBYS by 07Z with TEMPO LIFR conds from 08-12Z, while have not
gone as bullish at the other inland TAF sites, but still
suggesting solid MVFR VSBYS expected at GNV/JAX from 09-13Z, while
coastal TAF sites should remain VFR, but have hinted at some low
probs of fog with 6SM BR in the 09-13Z time frame with this
package. Expect conds to improve after 13Z back to VFR with
diurnal heating producing some low level SCT Cu in the MVFR range
but have posted any MVFR CIGS yet as light East flow develops
through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Onshore flow continues between a ridge of high pressure and a
leftover frontal trough laying across southern Florida. An
approaching cold front will send a surge of northeasterly winds
southward down the coast through Monday. Prolonged small craft
advisory conditions are possible throughout next week as strong
high pressure and a coastal trough maintain and potentially
enhance gusty northeasterly winds and elevate seas.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through the upcoming
weekend with light onshore flow and surf/breakers around 2 feet.
Still expecting high risk of rip currents early next week with the
upcoming surge of NE winds on Monday/Tuesday along with
surf/breakers of at least 4-6 ft, with high surf headlines
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Drier than average airmass will remain across much of the area
again today, with only a slight chance for showers over far
southern areas this afternoon and evening. Breezy east to
northeasterly winds will continue today as well, generally around
10-15 mph (highest near the coast), though these winds will ease
slightly over the weekend. Good to borderline high dispersions
will be expected with the breezy conditions inland today.
Saturday, frontal boundary will lift northward along the FL
peninsula and bring an increase in moisture with widely scattered
showers and T`storms south of I-10 becoming more numerous south of
Ocala. Higher rain chances spread north of I-10 on Sunday, though
another front working its way towards and into the area through
Monday will keep drier conditions over inland southeast GA while
increasing rain chances the further south you go early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Surge of NE winds early next week will combine with already above
normal astronomical tides due to the full moon and expect at least
Minor Coastal Flooding during high tide cycles along the Atlantic
Coastal beachfront locations as well as down the St. Johns River
Basin. Still too early to determine these water levels will reach
Moderate or greater flooding criteria next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  74  87  74  88 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  70  91  73  92 /   0  20  10  40
SGJ  74  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  50
GNV  69  94  72  93 /   0  40  10  40
OCF  71  91  73  91 /  10  50  20  50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion