Falkirk, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

365
FXUS63 KBIS 241934
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
234 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  through the end of the month.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Quiet weather continues through the forecast period. The main
features weather wise are a couple of weak cold fronts that move
through the forecast area. The first moves through tonight into
Thursday morning. Higher winds aloft should minimize the fog
potential tonight, and will not add a mention of fog overnight.
A patch or two in low lying and protected areas can`t be
completely ruled out though. The cold front passage will result
in a wind shift to the north to northeast by daytime Thursday,
with some cooler temperatures most areas, moreso in the north
though. Seeing that we outperformed for highs yesterday and
likely again today, we utilized a blend of NBM90 with NBM for
highs Thursday. Thus a temperature range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the upper 70s and lower 80s south.
Another cold front moves through the forecast area Friday. This
front will be associated with a stronger shortwave, but will
likely remain dry over western and central ND. There will be
some breezy conditions both ahead and behind the cold front, yet
these will remain below advisory criteria and will not be long
lived with this quick moving feature. We again utilized a 50/50
blend of NBM90 with NBM for temperatures as well as for winds.
Saturday will bring slightly cooler temperatures behind the cold
front over central ND, but the west is already seeing rebounding
temperatures as upper level ridging strengthens over the central
portion of the U.S. through the rest of the weekend. By early
next week the upper level ridge moves east of the state and we
find ourselves in a southwest upper level flow. There are some
differences in the strength/position of the lingering ridge and
how fast energy from a western trough makes it into the local
area. Temperatures should remain at or above normal through the
first half of the work week, but the most uncertainty will be
whether or not we see some precipitation chances early in the
week or if they hold off until mid-week. Currently NBM pops are
pretty much dry through Monday with some low (15 to 20%) pops
Tuesday and Wednesday. Although showers are currently in the
forecast, a thunderstorm can not be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Patchy
fog may be possible over eastern portions of central ND Thursday
morning but the probabilities should be even less than this
morning so will not carry a mention of fog attim for KJMS. A
light southerly flow today will shift northerly from west to
east later tonight through Thursday morning behind a weak cold
front.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion