Falkirk, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS63 KBIS 231927
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
227 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible south central into the James River Valley
  late tonight into Wednesday morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Westerlies remain pretty much north of the Border through the
rest of the work week. Weak surface high pressure propagates
east through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. On
Wednesday morning there may be some patchy fog over the south
central and eastern portions of North Dakota, with better
probabilities over areas east of the James River Valley. Did add
a mention of patchy fog south central into the JRV Wednesday
morning.
Late in the day Wednesday through Thursday morning, a weak dry
cold front drops southeast through the forecast area bringing
not much more than a wind shift and some slightly cooler
temperatures in the northwest and north central. Another cold
front traverses the forecast area on Friday. At this time, the
threat for any precipitation looks to remain well to our north
and east with this system. There will be a little more
potential for some breezy conditions Friday afternoon over
central into eastern ND out of the south, ahead of the front.
Also from the northwest over western ND mid to late afternoon
behind the cold front, especially if we are able to mix out to
the higher westerly winds at the top of the mixed layer. At
this time the potential for any wind highlights are low.
Fire Weather concerns may begin to creep higher in parts of the
far west as we get into the later portions of the work week and
the weekend due to continued dry weather, warm temperatures
with lower humidities and possible mix-out conditions each
afternoon. However at this time, the probability for near
critical to critical fire weather conditions looks to remain
low. Will continue to monitor percent green values as we get
deeper into the fall season.
High temperatures on Saturday range from the 70s central to
around 80 far west. Sunday we see highs climb into the mid 70s
Turtle Mountains to the mid 80s southwest. Temperatures cool
slightly early next week with only a minimal uptick in
precipitation chances through the early portion of the work
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. The only
exception could be some patchy fog over the far south central
and into the James River Valley early Wednesday morning.
However, at this time uncertainty is too high to mention at the
KBIS or KJMS TAF. A north to northwest surface flow today will
become light tonight and remain light at KBIS and KJMS, but will
shift to the south-southwest at KXWA, KMOT and KDIK Wednesday
morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion