Fayette, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

719
FXUS64 KBMX 300521
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
Today, the state will be between two systems, the high pressure over
the MS River Valley slowly moving eastward, and the lower pressure
off the east coast. There is plenty of moisture and upper level
support as a weak low moves between these features and across the
state for light to moderate isolated showers to develop and move
over the northeast and east. Have left mention of PoP at a minimum
for now due to uncertainty of CAMs. Activity could linger into
the early evening, before weakening through the night.
By Wednesday, the high will begin to influence the area more,
with the low moving to the east. Easterly low and mid level flow
will set up, with drier air advecting into the state by Wednesday
afternoon. Dry conditions and warm temperatures in the 80s will
be expected.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
High pressure and flow out of the east will continue through the
end of the work week and into the weekend. Dry weather and temps
in the 80s will remain each day. By Sunday, models are in decent
agreement that a surface low will develop and bring rain back to
the area. There is some uncertainty of where this low will move,
but with low and mid level flow transitioning to out of the
south by late saturday, there should be plenty of moisture for
scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
returning the area sometime late Sunday and possibly into Monday.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
Low pressure to the east will keep higher low level moisture and
MVFR ceilings prevailing in the eastern areas of Alabama, touching
KAUO and possibly KASN through the early morning. VFR conditions
are expected through the afternoon at all TAF sites. There is a
low chance for convection in the afternoon in the eastern half of
the state. Though left mention out of each TAF for now due to
uncertainty in coverage and timing.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, with minRH values will fall
into the low to mid-40s by Wednesday. Given the sharp east shift
in the tropical trends, no real moisture return is expected until
next weekend, with only scattered rain chances the next seven days
or so. Because of this, drought conditions will remain ongoing,
with additional expansion possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  62  86  61 /  30  20   0   0
Anniston    83  63  85  62 /  30  20   0   0
Birmingham  87  66  87  65 /  20  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  89  65 /   0   0  10   0
Calera      87  65  88  63 /  20  20   0   0
Auburn      82  65  84  63 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery  87  67  86  63 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        83  64  84  62 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion