Felicity, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

126
FXUS61 KILN 201835
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
235 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue through tonight before rain
chances increase Sunday through at least the first half of the
upcoming week. Above normal temperatures will continue through early
next week before a wetter and cooler pattern develops toward the
middle and end of next week. Several rounds of showers and storms are
likely through the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Elongated negatively tilted mid level trof extends from the Upper MS
Valley into the Ohio Valley. An embedded weak shortwave to pivot
northeast into the Great Lakes tonight. Mainly dry conditions
overnight with forecast soundings showing dry air in the lower
levels of the atmosphere. Expect mainly mid and high level clouds
across the area tonight. Lows drop to readings ranging from the upper
50s to the lower 60s. These readings will be a few degrees warm than
warmer than recent nights due to clouds and southeast to south winds
winds around 5 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A broad southwest mid level flow develops Sunday with low pressure
developing over the Upper MS Valley. Moisture increases with the
approach of a weak mid level shortwave Sunday afternoon. Weak to
low end moderate instability develops in the warm sector in the
afternoon. Bulk shear around 20 kts looks to exist with CAM
solutions depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon into the early evening. With DCAPE values approaching 1000
J/KG...a few of the storms will be capable of producing locally
damaging gusts through early evening.
Highs on Sunday will still be above normal - ranging from the
lower/mid 80s west to the upper 80s/near 90 east.
Severe threat diminishes with the loss of heating Sunday evening but
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue - with the best
coverage over West Central Ohio. Lows to range from 60 to 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures will be on a slow downward trend with highs 75-85
Monday dropping to the 70s Tuesday and levelling out in the low-mid
70s on Saturday. Lows 60-65 Mon and Tues nights will also slowly
level out to the upper 50s Thurs and Fri nights.
H5 l/w trough running wsw-ene across the nrn conus will evolve from
a low near Lake Superior entraining energy from a low tracking se
over MT on Mon. This l/w trough takes a slow southward track and
should be oriented from KS to nrn ME by daybreak Wed. Larger
differences begin to crop up beyond this time in this feature`s
evolution, but the overall feel for the latter half of next week is
generally lower heights in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with a
cloudy/cool outcome and chance pops through the period. Regarding
pops, forecast output from NBM remains too high by my estimation.
This is particularly noticeable Mon/Mon night with >75% coverage.
Yes, it will rain during this time but there will certainly be long
precip-free periods.
The upper trough evolves into a cutoff low centered near TN later
Friday. Pops are curtailed during this time with our area centered
north of the circulation and in what is expected to be an
unfavorable location for continued shower activity. Tuesday onward
is in a similar situation with several breaks between areas of
precip and a larger than normal uncertainty in timing/placement.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions overnight into Sunday. Few cumulus
clouds will give way to mid and high level clouds overnight. Can not
rule out brief MVFR vsby restriction at KLUK prior to sunrise but
clouds will likely mitigate the development of lower visibilities.
Scattered thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon as moisture
increases with the approach of a weak mid level shortwave. Have a
mention of thunder in a PROB30 after 21Z at KCVG 30 hour TAF sites.
Southeast winds around 6-8kts will become more southerly around 5kts
overnight and then increase to around 10 kts Sunday afternoon. Wind
gusts up to 18 kts will be possible Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ073-075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion